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The point is that an order to siege an American city would not be unlawful, under the Insurrection Act, because there are parts of the Act that give a lot of discretion to the President about when to use force. That siege order could be legal.

At that point, disobeying has to be a moral act, and the law isn’t a concern anymore.

I say this living in an apartment about three blocks from a tank in Los Angeles.

By the way, the U.S. armed forces includes in its ranks a small army of lawyers. That doesn't mean they'll necessarily identify unlawful orders as such and refuse to comply. But it's something.

Hence “likely” - it’s impossible to tell what might happen.