An increase of 140 individuals to 40,000 individuals over 50 years, during a period in which shipping exponentially increased, seems to contradict your theory. I don't expect a shipping increase from current levels over the next 50 years to be anywhere near as large. There's not much shipping traffic to speak of in the area covered by this article, but even globally, shipping accidents with whales, tragic as they may be, are not killing them off in numbers anywhere near comparable to intentional hunting.