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Comment by helsinkiandrew | Hacker News Reader

> I'll be in the pub by the end of the year.

You maybe, but how many others will? 10-20% less people in pubs, fewer tourists visiting west end shows, banks and other companies using work from home, could have a huge knock on effect on other businesses, property and taxes.

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For every pint they don't drink, I'll drink two? :)

I feel like I’m already doing that now.

You're in good company there ;)

>You maybe, but how many others will?

I'm willing to bet you in the next ~12-24 months virtually everyone. This isn't the first pandemic in human history. It's frankly ridiculous how people seem to have no awareness of how strongly we tend to overestimate events simply because we're living through them.

Yes but prior large pandemics have had triggered losing lasting social and economic changes. Things won’t necessarily go back to how they were before. Only time will tell

Counterexample: pubs reopened this past weekend in NZ and every venue was at capacity. No tourists, but increased domestic consumption.

This will obviously be more pronounced in countries with a greater historic discrepancy between tourism expenditure and receipts.

e.g. Spain will no doubt be more effected than NZ, whereas the UK could actually benefit:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.XPND.CD?end=2018...

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.RCPT.CD?end=2018...

Yeah but unlike the US it's possible the the virus is no longer present in NZ.

That's thinking too macro. The virus will plausibly be eliminated in the US gradually, e.g. French red/green zones.

Red/green zones or just about any partial/segregated lockdown seems likely to not work. Being in a red zone is worse than being in a green zone so people are incentivised to move from red zones to green zones (if they can). This is not what you want. It seems hard to restrict movement or enforce a strict quarantine in countries that are generally not planned to support restricting movement across internal boundaries.

I doubt this. It was spreading the Bay Area in late December. The first reported case with local transmission was in late February. That said, we weren't really looking for it, but without incredibly widespread testing, they best we can do is keep it lurking in the background.

The longer it's allowed to persist the more social and economic damage.

> and every venue was at capacity. No tourists, but increased domestic consumption.

I can't help but wonder if we're gonna have another century repeat: After the Spanish Flu came the Roaring Twenties.

And then right around the corner is World War III.

Don’t forget an enormous economic depression in between...

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