Yeah, but one thing about the subways here in Japan that I think is weird: if I ride the subway to work (11-minute ride) most of the time literally nobody talks.

Nobody uses the phone (it's bad manners here), so like the only time anybody talks is like when a group of people gets on together (not usually the case when I commute).

I mainly bike so my subway experience might not be very typical, but it's one anecdata point.

Almost all my subway-riding experiences this year have been such that 95% of the other passengers are wearing masks, and nobody talks.

Can't be the main factor, but it might be one factor.

In my city in Guangdong we still have lockdown and there hasn't been a significant number of cases in months. Pretty much all businesses have been open since March including bars, restaurants, offices etc but the "temporary" fences erected around neighborhoods are still in place, as are the checkpoints and curfews. Occasionally you will find a lax guard who lets everyone through with just a temperature check, but the stricter guards are still asking for proof of residence, not just from me (obvious foreigner) but also from locals.

To be honest, i suspect the movement restrictions are less about the virus now and more about controlling the "low end population" and other working class people. (Middle class people tend to live in gated communities anyway so the government didn't need to put up fences to control their movements.)

In short, China is definitely still being overly cautious, and it's not just up in the north.

Yeah life is nearly back to normal in Beijing and Shanghai. Restaurants are still below capacity, theaters and clubs aren’t open yet, and home visitors often still have to sign in at the gate, but that’s pretty much it. Local health authorities have even announced that it’s no longer necessary to wear a mask outside, but most people still do.

Definitely not back to normal in SEA.

I've yet to see a great explanation for why no Asian nations have been hit like some parts of Spain, Italy, France, Britain, US have been. Only a few parts of China appear to have been hit like that.

Countries in Asia not hammered by the virus: Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Laos.

I'd add China to that list, however absolutely nothing about their reported figures can be trusted. All authoritarian nations are very aggressively lying across the board about their numbers (North Korea as another example). Russia is in a similar situation, they're undercounting cases and deaths to an absurd extreme (half the deaths of Canada, with 4x the cases; Britain with 10x the deaths of Russia, with fewer cases; yeah right).

It makes little sense to pretend it's masks making all the difference for all of them. Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Mongolia are extremely poor and there's no evidence it's some kind of cultural hygiene action protecting them all (an often floated contributing theory for Japan or Singapore).

Cities in Vietnam and Indonesia didn't avoid an outbreak like Wuhan / Milan / Madrid / NYC thanks to instantly 100% masking up back in November - January.

Based on what we now know about SARS-CoV-2 there are only a few reasonable explanations (some of which blend, multiple factors).

Being on an island blatantly helps, just ask Hawaii and New Zealand. As with Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and in practical terms South Korea. Australia also largely fits that qualification (their major cities are population islands).

A lower susceptibility due to an unknown genetic factor. We do know that Vitamin D levels are very important, such that darker skin in cooler climates like NYC (cooler during flu season) can be a deadly combination as it pertains to getting a bad case of Covid. Someone on HN stated that 40% of deaths in Sweden are Somali Swedes despite their very small share of the population (5% of Covid cases are Somalis, and they're about 0.8% of the population). Severe Vitamin D deficiency has been repeatedly linked to bad outcomes. This is also an important factor with some other respiratory viruses.

There may be a lot of cases in some of these nations, however they're not producing large death rates due to health factors, specifically far lower rates of obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, etc. If you're an average person and catch a mild case of Covid in Indonesia, you're not going to the hospital for it unless it progresses and you get very sick.

We do know there has been some lying about cases, however it doesn't appear that nations like Indonesia are covering up any mass number of deaths (I've yet to see any evidence supporting the notion that they're hiding eg tens of thousands of deaths).

Many of these nations have not tested at a high level, which may explain some of the lower case rates, however it doesn't explain the lack of large death numbers. Deaths have tended to prompt nations to get aggressive on higher rates of testing, so unless you're seeing a lot of deaths, a poorer nation may choose to avoid the cost of high rates of testing.

There's no question that masking up helps to a huge degree. So to the extent that nations have done that, it has helped them imo (I think the evidence is overwhelming at this point). Japan and South Korea to name two, have clearly seen the benefit from that.

And last but not least, climate. It's likely that the hotter, poorer nations in Asia have had some protection from the virus for the same reason cities in Texas, California and Florida have done so much better than eg Chicago, Boston, Detroit, NYC, Philly, Wuhan, Milan, Madrid, etc. We know the virus, as with influenza and SARS, does not do as well against high temperatures and high humidity. It doesn't stop the virus, it slows it down versus what would otherwise occur. Also, being in a very cold climate (Canada, Finland) would have been a benefit until warmer weather hit (we saw that in Moscow), as it reduces various social activity naturally.

If you were to bundle together: fewer comorbidities, climate, island and masks, you'd have just about an ideal mix of protections (a culture that will consistently respect social distancing would obviously help also).