You make an excellent point, and I'll raise a counterargument. I would claim, simply, that human life is intrinsically a good thing. I believe that my life is worth living, that it is better that I'm alive than if I were dead. I'll presume that everyone who reads this believes the same about their own lives. In that case, the more people alive, the better -- (if all else is equal).
That said, the philosopher Derek Parfit anticipated this and raises a counterargument to my argument above, known as the "mere addition paradox". [1] Roughly speaking, it goes as follows.
1. Suppose you have a population of 1,000,000 people, living happy, healthy, productive lives. Let's stipulate that this is a good thing.
2. Now, suppose in addition to this, suppose you have a second population of 1,000,000 people, who lead difficult lives with a lot of hardship, but whose lives are (perhaps barely) worth living. Then, if human life is intrisically good, then it is good that these people also exist. (This is the "mere addition" part.)
3. Given these two populations, equality is a good thing: lower the standard of living of the first million people ever so slightly, and raise the standard of the second group to match the first. This, too, seems to be a good thing.
4. Repeat. Eventually you arrive at a huge population, living lives of misery and squalor which are just slightly better than nothing -- but which one has argued is a better scenario than your original million people. This is the "repugnant conclusion".
It's my my main issue with the anti-natalist movement: If theoretically everyone who believed in climate change agreed that anti-natalism was the solution, by definition within a generation the largest voting block would be the children of climate deniers. Which would actually make climate change much worse.
We don't need fewer humans, we need smarter/better institutions and more efficient technology. Every life born is one more potential option for a breakthrough.
As an anti-natalist (more precise would be anatalist, I am not opposing that other people have kids, I just wish they chose not to), let me address that. The point is not everybody to not have kids, but just enough to stabilize or slightly decrease the population.
First, you're assuming that climate denial is genetic and not cultural. Which is a big assumption, and I am in general in favor of nurture argument. (As a side note, by waiting longer to have kids, humans might actually be selecting for kids that are learning more and longer, which favors nurture even more.)
However, even if I take that assumption. If I chose not to have kids, that very much means I do not care about biology and what my genetics want. I am making the decision as a person free of the evolutionary pressure (well, somewhat, because I still care about survival of human race). Therefore, I am not sure why I should be bothered by the evolutionary pressure on other individuals. The truth is, it is going to be their battle. I can only lend them a helping hand (and perhaps an example), and do (what I believe is) a morally correct thing. If they mess up and still act wrong, it's not my moral responsibility.
It is a similar question as to whether or not vote strategically. If everybody votes strategically, you can get a result that no one wants. Therefore, somebody has to sacrifice and decidedly vote not strategically.
I'm not saying you or anyone else should have kids out of some sense of duty. If you don't want kids, fine. People having kids they didn't want has led to a lot of messed up families. However I find the argument that it's because of climate change to be a post-hoc rationalization. It's like if during the black death people said they're not having kids because it's morally correct to not produce more plague carriers.
As for your voting analogy, under our current system (in the US) if everyone votes strategically some good might occur albeit in a somewhat corrupt, half-assed manner. If fewer people vote strategically then those who vote strategically win, however small a minority they might be. That's how we ended up with a two party system. Alliances willing to compromise parts of their values will defeat smaller but pure adversaries.
I think for my argument it doesn't matter whether the inheritance of the denialist position happens through biological or cultural means. Either way, what you're assuming is that by and large people cannot change their position (from the position of their parents) based on the situation they will find themselves in, that they cannot adapt culturally (i.e. they can only adapt via natural selection).
> However I find the argument that it's because of climate change to be a post-hoc rationalization.
Maybe it is. How can anyone know? I don't think it changes anything in the debate, if it's just a rationalization of something else. Maybe your belief that it is a post-hoc rationalization is a rationalization of something as well.
> under our current system (in the US) if everyone votes strategically some good might occur albeit in a somewhat corrupt, half-assed manner
Saying "some good might occur" is equivalent of "some bad might occur", which was my point. Your (not mine) U.S. voting system is horrible, you should push for changing it into something more sane. But regardless, I think what I wrote is true for most voting systems.
IOW, if your goal is to better humanity, having a kid is a really, really blunt instrument versus using more of your brain capacity x time on that goal.
If it were genuinely the case that human life should be maximized, we should lower everyone's standard of living as much as possible (it consumes resources), and then force everyone to have as many children as possible.
Of course, that would also maximize human suffering, but apparently human life is intrinsically good regardless of suffering, so not a problem.
People don't live in vacuum, we destroy our environment on maybe even exponential scale as our numbers grow. Extermination of vast amounts of species and whole ecosystems might mean nothing to you, but sure as hell is something I value very highly.
I am not an extremist, I don't claim that earth and universe would be just fine without humans, we can be a worthy addition even if only for selfish purposes. But as usually some middle path is probably the best, especially in long term view, which is very hard to model for human mind.
I agree. (And, in particular, I agree that ecological diversity is very important.) I consider it to be something of a foundational model -- kind of like how in introductory physics you assume that things like air resistance don't exist.
That's an enormous assumption, in my opinion.
> Given these two populations, equality is a good thing: lower the standard of living of the first million people ever so slightly, and raise the standard of the second group to match the first.
I'm trying to understand why you would repeat this step if you've lowered the standard of the first million ever so slightly but have already matched the miserable million to be that of the happy million?
Exactly, that's the paradox. Parfit's argument stipulates a series of steps each of which seems to make the world better, but where the end result seems to be worse than what you started with.
Hopefully, we can avoid the paradox, and instead grow in such a way that everyone thrives and we mitigate the negative effects on the environment.
I do think there is value to having a balanced aged pyramid, however. We don't want a China or Japan situation, where there are far too many old people, which would crush the younger members of society under the burden of caring. The one way to counteract that would be immigration, which has been a hot-button issue and is not a given or perfect remedy for population pyramids.
[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?view=map
Developed countries already have total fertility rates at or below replacement rate; it's all population momentum now, so you want to reduce the impact of everyone living a first world life for the remainder of their life span. Less combustion vehicles, less unnecessary air travel, fossil generation plants, meat heavy diets, etc. We're already headed in this direction, we just need to invest more heavily (Green New Deal, ESG funds, etc).
Regarding education and healthcare in developing countries, educated, empowered women with access to robust healthcare have fewer children [1] [2], and this data holds true across the entire world, even in countries that attempt to use generous subsidies to encourage higher fertility rates.
Moving folks from the developing world to the developed world, or vice versa, wouldn't have a meaningful impact IMHO.
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#empowerment-of-wom...
[2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/womens-educational-attain...
If most of the savings of decarbonization go to capital, we will end up just bringing our current issues with growing wealth inequality into the decarbonized economy.
Developed economies should lead the way on this by demonstrating how a high quality of life can be preserved with decarbonization at population scale.
That means not just for the wealthy to build net zero eco-mansions and drive Teslas, but for most regular people's energy bills (for both home and transportation) to drop to near amortized capital investment cost of renewables plus the marginal cost of producing renewable energy, which should be far lower than fossil fuels.
It sounds like you mean for respect to be an acceptance of entitlement. Again, I'm unsure how to reconcile that when resources are finite.
But we have fascist political forces in America despite the democracy. Same thing. It's a political thing not a structural thing.
Cutting back on energy use is the most regressive way of solving climate change. We will almost certainly use more energy in the future, regardless of the population.
There are other reasons not to follow this path, but that isn’t one of them.
Expecting technological advancement to bail us out every time is wishful thinking.
There is no scientific consensus on the impact of climate change on total food production (there is a significant school of thought that it will increase due to increased production in Canada and Russia), and there's no consensus at all on what the carrying capacity of earth is.
Check the IPCC report:
For the major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in tropical and temperate regions, climate change without adaptation will negatively impact production for local temperature increases of 2°C or more above late-20th-century levels, although individual locations may benefit (medium confidence). {7.4, Figure 7-4} Projected impacts vary across crops and regions and adaptation scenarios, with about 10% of projections for the period 2030–2049 showing yield gains of more than 10% and about 10% of projections showing yield losses of more than 25%, compared to the late 20th century.
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/food-security-and-food-pr...
Note how the projections are mixed between decreased and increased production?
Don't claim consensus when it's not there.
This feels like a very odd view because the reverse is near profane thought.
>Best to do that when you're SURE they will have all the resources they need to be a productive and helpful member of society...not when you're 16 and can't care for them properly.
If it is okay to accept this logic based on age, what about other factors? For example, income level?
This is a bold blanket statement that I can't agree with. It all depends on how this new person will live their life. I would argue that creating 10 new persons in a third world country doesn't hurt the environment as much as 1 single person in the US or in Europe.
I totally get the sentiment, but history stubbornly is full of people born into abject poverty who somehow rise to the occasion. Take a look on Wikipedia at inventor profiles. Our best, life changing inventions came from people who were born into less-than-ideal situations. In many ways the impact people have on the world is a dice roll and not a matter of proper financial preparation.
Ironically this consumption-based mentality is also one cause of the declining birth rates in developed countries. On a material level, potential middle-class parents are vastly better off today than the parents of ~100 years ago. As a percentage of income, food is cheaper, entertainment and education are essentially free (thanks to the Internet), clothing doesn't need to be hand-made, etc. And yet many people don't have kids because they "can't afford it" which basically translates to "can't afford to maintain society's baseline consumption levels." I'm not blaming them, either - this is something that society pushes constantly. Going against that tide is extremely difficult.
> Every problem with modern society becomes worse with more humans.
No, not necessarily if enough people adopted a minimalist/low carbon emission lifestyle. More people would lead to it becoming a bigger social movement, thus making it more acceptable for 'regular' people to join.
People aren't choosing to not have kids just so they can eat avocado toast.
Don’t get me wrong - I prefer living alone to having roommates, and certainly prefer having my own private room to sharing it with multiple other people. But this is a very modern expectation. If it were normal for 3-4 people to share a room (as was common in the past), I imagine rent prices would actually be lower today than historically.
In any case, rent is really only overinflated in coastal megacities. And rent wasn’t really my main target: there are a whole lot of modern consumption activities considered ‘essential’ which really aren’t in any sense, but have simply become social expectations.
But there is no telling how things will pan out with economy in the future, to what extent will automation increase productivity, etc. Also if the anti-aging research comes through the productive age of individuals could be extended along with longer lifespan.
Whatever happens the environment argument is ridiculous, environment has always been unstable, life on earth has been hit by major cataclysmic events throughout the history - the only difference is that historically we couldn't do anything about it - which is changing significantly with technological development. If we don't start decoupling our survival odds from the environmental factors we are going to suffer as a society irregardless of what we do to environment.
It isn't. The environment isn't unstable right now, it has relatively stable rate of change, and it's predictable. It's just getting worse for our survival as a population. We are using carbon based energy sources too quickly for the environment to follow the natural cycle to sequester it, and as a result we won't be able to feed the existing number of humans.
We cannot decouple survival odds from environmental factors. You show a lack of understanding of how food is made to think that is possible at current populations.
On the timescale of declining birth rates affecting this - this is probably the simplest problem to solve - we have multiple ways reduce environmental impacts on food production with different levels of innovation/change required - from engineering resilient crops and using the same approach as we do now, over vertical farming in controlled environments (still producing the same food but with low surface requirement and isolation from environmental effects), all the way to producing essential nutrients from simple organisms large scale (eg. algae) (here we need to figure out a lot more about nutrition to provide reasonable healthy substitutes over complex food) - this is a matter of economics, scaling, research - not trivial but clearly possible.
Building cities able to withstand large scale environmental disasters like hurricanes and tsunamis, temperature control, isolation from air pollutants (eg. radioactive waste in the air), imposing strict bounds on entering/leaving to prevent viruses/bacteria from spreading (through humans and animals) - these are the kinds of things we will need to be able to do in the future - otherwise the next COVID, avian flue, Fukushima or global warming is going to leave us in a shit situation without any way of responding - we will be left in the same shit situation we are now - forced to hide and hope it goes away.
I don’t see how any idea which increases consumption (such as building cities and farms and whatever can help mitigate the more immediate problem of carbon emissions and other fossil fuel related pollution. Only solution I can see is reduction in consumption per capita (mainly in developed countries), and accompanying that is reduction of ”capita”s Aka reduction in population .
Droughts can still cause famine and starvation in many parts of the world. Floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, vulcano eruptions, forest fires, localised disease (like lime disease) etc. all part of the natural disasters happening without human intervention. These are the small scale common occurrences that we still really don't have good ways of dealing with.
A lot of these are exacerbated by climate change - which is already in motion and there is very little proof that we can predict what will happen accurately, so even if we cut green house gas emissions to 0 - and that's not a realistic scenario - we're still going to have to deal with the consequences.
Then there are global outlier events that can be extinction level - meteor impact, deadly virus strains crossing from animals to humans and spread by animals (eg. bird flu - we're covering from COVID with IFR of sub 1% which is largely targeting old people past average age of death - bird flue IFR was close to 50% and spread by birds which aren't so easy to contain - imagine if the transmission was easier). Again 0 human intervention required, have historical precedent, just not frequent enough to worry about when you have more pressing issues.
In any realistic scenario we will be living in a world were local actions can have global impact - nuclear disaster can spread radiation between continents, virus originating in one place can spread globally and we have no containment units, climate change is going to make the weather more volatile and many natural disasters are going to become more frequent and it can destroy currently hospitable areas, etc.
Nature is not great by default, and we're already on a path that will make it less hospitable - the only realistic long term solution I see is learning to live in that environment.
That being said, this focus on "population" always sounds a little wrong to me. It's not about how many people are alive, it's about the consumption of resources per person. And by this metric, yes, the US is probably the worst offender. But here is the thing, will childless household/individuals consume less than families?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_d...
You can't ignore the social problems created by shrinking populations though. A major one is monopolization of high positions in business and politics by an increasingly elderly class that is stuck in an obsolete way of thinking. In America this has given birth to the quip "ok, boomer."
I don't like sounding age-ist, but it does seem as if most people stop updating their understanding of the world at some point in their 40s. I don't think it's that older people can't learn. My grandfather taught himself computer programming, called BBSes (at 300 baud!), learned digital/TTL electronics, and learned all kinds of other new stuff in his 60s. It's just that most people don't do this. I think it might be an ego thing. People decide they know it all at some point and stop learning or changing their opinions.
It could also have less to do with age than with age plus status. High status people rarely seem to make drastic revisions to their world view because their brain stem is telling them everything they're doing is working. (At least this is the mechanism I suspect exists. It would have survival value to some extent.) So you get entrenched older managerial and political classes that double, triple, and quadruple down on failing policies because the failure has not affected them yet.
A second problem is that virtually every society on Earth today uses growth to paper over a range of systemic failings. Instead of dealing with inequality, we use growth. Instead of getting rid of moribund industries we use growth to make new ones while keeping the old stuff around. Growth really does avoid the need to confront a lot of very messy problems. Recent political history has not inspired confidence in me that we can confront these problems any more rationally than people in the past.
The tipping point I'm looking at is when kindred.ai, covariant.ai, google, or similar player nails manipulation. Give me a set of hands that can reliably perform a task in a semi-structured environment 24/7 at 65% the speed of a human and 1B people will be out of work in a decade.
This will further increase the wealth of a few and raise the standards of living for many which will increase their rates of consumption. I'd like to see the population decline to balance this expected increase in consumption.
As for the gerontocracy problem, the easier it is for me to earn enough live the less I have to worry about who is in charge.
If everyone who retired has "adequate" savings, but their is not a large enough workforce to support them, you will see their buying power fall. Also possible is their buying power would remain, and the buying power of the young workforce would fall as a greater share of goods produced go to retired folks who hoarded financial capital when it was cheaper to do so.
> If everyone who retired has "adequate" savings, but their is not a large enough workforce to support them, you will see their buying power fall. Also possible is their buying power would remain, and the buying power of the young workforce would fall as a greater share of goods produced go to retired folks who hoarded financial capital when it was cheaper to do so.
That's another reason where you need either a larger working population or a vast excess that gets redistributed to support retirees.
I suppose you could argue that some people do stockpile housing for retirement. However, other than that, all they are doing is stockpiling a claim on future productivity. As a matter of policy, we could give every old person such a claim regardless of their savings.
We'll just need to move beyond the current xenophobia and remember what we use to know.
Writing people off as this or that is not the answer.
Should we incentivize our own population to breed or ship in foreigners wholesale? Seems like self-subversion to opt for the latter.
The other 98% of americans are immigrants or the children/grandchildren/great grandchildren/etc. of immigrants.
Some of my ancestors immigrated from Ireland and Italy to the US, but despite that, I've decided to work in software engineering instead of the mafia.
98% of the population are immigrants or the descendents of immigrants.
The people who wrote the US Constitution were immigrants or the descendents of immigrants.
All the presidents, including the current one, have been the descendents of immigrants.
The US Constitution has survived this reality for 200+ years.
I realize some people, like my aunt (whose grandfather was an italian immigrant), want to pretend there is a difference between immigrants coming to america today and those who came 50, 100, 200, 300 years ago. But the difference is primarily in her mind, and now she treats new immigrants the way her grandfather was treated by people who decided italians should not be welcome in america.
It seems to be a constant tension here that I don't expect to every really go away.
I'm sure in countries without immigration people find other things to use to classify each other into groups that are convenient to dislike and scapegoat.
This is a subject near and dear to my heart as a systems observation wonk, and have done a tremendous amount of research on the subject.
I recommend these two books to those interested:
Shrinking-population Economics: Lessons From Japan by Akihiko Matsutani
Countdown: Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth? by Alan Weisman
Why not? We probably have a lot of time before they become seriously unavailable. The Earth is huge. Imagine if all oxygen production on Earth stopped tomorrow. We would still have enough oxygen in the atmosphere that would last 1000 years at current consumption (obviously you couldn't live for a 1000 years though). Humanity has progressed immensely in the last 200 years. I can't imagine where we will be in 500.
800 million people out of 7.6 billion are chronically undernourished [4] and your argument is we can still support more people? At what point do people get real that we are burning the gas faster than we can fill the gas tank of the ecosystem engine? Hope is not a strategy, and we are not so ingenuous if we already have so many people struggling to survive. Less people over time (total fertility rate stepdown), less demand on world resources, less suffering. It's that simple.
[1] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/07/fish-stocks-are-used-...
[2] https://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/finalwebsite/solutions/...
[3] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/5/100505-fossil...
[4] https://www.worldhunger.org/world-hunger-and-poverty-facts-a...
Anyway e is growing and will always be (unless our universe is not isolated) and we will all die even if we manage to: save our planet/move out of our planet/move out of our solar system/move out of our galaxy.
I realise that i argued against your point even though i'm quite agreeing with it. Oh well, precision do not hurt anyone.
[0]https://www.statista.com/statistics/681747/phosphate-rock-re...
Where does this come? Is it referenced in the books you mention? I just have never heard this before.
Source: https://na.unep.net/geas/archive/pdfs/geas_jun_12_carrying_c...
I assume you have a reference for this? How do you know the carrying capacity of the earth is close to 1 billion?