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Comment by dwighttk | Hacker News Reader

is this due before or after full autonomy?

You'd think they'd have their hands full with the robotaxi network, building 1000 solar roofs per week, getting the cars to automatically call a tow truck, getting the cars to autonomously find a valid parking spot, powering the Gigafactory 100% with solar power, building a pickup truck that's a better sports car than a standard 911, outfitting all supercharges affected by blackouts in California with a Tesla powerpack, building more than two semis, building the roadster etc. etc.

Obviously after. Full autonomy is promised for 2017.

Its right after the roadster and semi are in full production. They are scheduled for ~4 years after their announcement if they don't get pushed back again.

I see no reason to believe this is less of a hype followed by vaporware.

Aren't we now past the mark to call Tesla vaporware. Musk build a legit revenue stream and for both customers and shareholders this was a very welcome change. I wonder if any of the incumbents would have a similar electric car as Tesla in 2030. They haven't moved an inch since Musk is taking their industry by storm, thats almost already 10 years. Even Audi has mayor problems manufacturing their etron.

I'm not calling Tesla vaporware. They make the best EVs on the market and I do like them.

Having said that, they have a bad habit of announcing products with _unbelievable_ specs that are just a little too good to be true and then delaying them constantly. For examples, see FSD, the Semi, the Roadster, and maybe the Cybertruck as well. Obviously we do not know for sure if the Cybertruck will be delayed, but it would be an amazingly fast program if it were to be produced in volume by the end of next year.

I still love the SX3, and Y, though. They are great products, IMO.

> Even Audi has mayor problems manufacturing their etron.

The Audi e-tron outsells the Model X and the Model S:

https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/04/global-top-20-march-20...

And the e-tron is outselling the Model X and Model S combined in Europe:

https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/04/europe-march-2020.html

There's not much reason to buy a model s right now compared to the 3 imo. The model 3 is #1 on your list and sells 4-8x more than the next 5 on the list, including the e-tron

The e-tron is not in the same price category as the Model 3. The Volkswagen ID.3 is in the same category. The ID.3 will become the best selling EV in Europe, maybe as soon as this year, definitely by next year. Have a look at it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03n2H_EY2zA

I guess first you will be able to buy the chassis option that will support this future battery.

The hardware to achieve 'million-mile' battery is already shipping in currently selling vehicles, its just a matter of fine tuning the software at this point!!1

Fine tuning being setting max charge 55% and never going below 45%.

  def accelerator_pedal():
    if speed > 1 mph:
      return 0
    else:
      return accelerator_pedal_analog_value()

Full autonomy depends, among other things, on regulators. Could be years before the right people are convinced it should be road legal.

Hints I see re: Cybertruck point to new battery by end of 2021 (CT launch). Few/no regulators to persuade of exotic tech.

I’ll settle for self driving package that doesn’t plow full speed into stationary objects. What regulatory hurdle is that stuck behind?

But will the Cybertruck actually be produced by the end of 2021 or were the battery requirements too high for the spec and price point?

Point of this thread is new battery tech arriving soon, and hints during CT unveiling were it would be the first Tesla vehicle using the new tech. Notice the new “Gigafactory” will double as CT manufacturing, and Elon has referenced new batteries well before any of this.

Sure, but there were hints of that during the semi and roadster unveiling too. 200KWh in a car smaller than a 3? Almost 1 MWh in a semi costing less than 200k?

The CT was always going to be built at either NV or a new factory. All new factories are doing battery production. If there's a hint there, it is a really weak one.

Having said that, I do think the CT will make it in 2022 and maybe we'll even see the lower trim versions in volume production by 2023. That would still be pretty impressive.

There are no regulations currently in the US that would prohibit full self driving. They simply do not exist.

Regulation is a lie told by Elon to excuse a lack of progress.

If there aren’t regulations, there will be soon. Tesla needs to address the obvious before it becomes a problem.

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