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> This article suggests by end of next year, <$100/kWh. In percentage terms that's a big improvement, but even going by last year's estimates, only $8k out of the $40k price tag of a standard Model 3 is actually accounted for by the battery. So if that $8k drops to $4k, I can imagine the car price dropping to say $35k. But not more than that.

You're comparing manufacturing costs to retail prices. Presumably the battery has some kind of a markup on top of their production cost.

On top of that, you sell more cars if they cost $4000 less, right? So then you get more economies of scale, which lowers unit costs, which allows lower prices, which causes you to sell more cars, so then you get more economies of scale.

I thought Tesla made the claim last year that they hit the $100 per kwH target.

I know Tesla has the best batteries of an EV in mass production, but that price seems really high. I found this article last year talking about VW paying <$100/kWh.

https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/09/id-3-batteries-cost-vw-...

Batteries vs Battery Packs. Lots of extra stuff goes into the pack(cooling, wiring, frame, monitoring/charging electronics ext). Not sure exactly what Tesla's breakdown is, offhand don't think I've seen them release ever release the info.