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Comment by AbrahamParangi | Hacker News Reader

If it makes you feel any better, the lockdowns probably don't matter in the limit.

1) Individual behavior changed prior to the lockdowns (people don't want to die)

2) The government appears generally too incompetent to figure out how to lower R0 low enough to eradicate the virus

3) Since everyone can see that the govt is fucking this up, the marginal utility of hard lockdowns becomes less than the marginal pain. Some people will socialize, go to restaurants, etc. but...

4) It probably won't be more than a 50-75% return to normality because people don't want to die, and risk preferences vary so some will remain cautious. This will, crush small businesses, restaurants, bars, leisure, etc.

So since the govt is too incompetent to bring the virus to actual 0, then formal lockdowns don't matter because you're not getting rid of the virus anyway and raising them doesn't matter much either, because you're not going back to normal.

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Points #1 and #4 are evident in states who have already re-opened for business: Restaurants are seeing 80% reduction regarding in-room dining year over year, SIP orders being lifted be damned.

Point #1 was reinforced by looking at OpenTable data as well. de Blasio told people to go to restaurants, and on that same day he urged people to congregate in close quarters, reservations were down 34% year over year and had been trending down for 2 weeks.

People aren't stupid despite what the media reports, picking out groups of people to prove a point they want to push.

Furthermore, the lockdowns moved the Overton window for a lot of people, hammering it in their head that they need to practice social distancing. It's not likely going to get any stronger with government-mandated half-measure lockdowns continuing.

Your 2nd and 3rd points illustrate the cultural problem the parent comment mentioned. The “the government is incompetent” trope contributes to the distrust that’s making it harder to deal with the virus.

Like when you say the government is fucking things up, what are talking about here. Federal, state, city level? Because they each have approached the pandemic very differently and it’s unfair to put them all under the same umbrella. I’m pretty happy with the way my local government has responded. It hasn’t been perfect, but I also don’t expect them to deal with a once-in-a-century pandemic without hiccups.

I know at least here in the US it’s common to paint “the government” as incompetent, and overpaid. But when parts of the population are angrily protesting that they can’t get haircuts and flying to FL to party during spring break, it’s no wonder it hasn’t been easy to get this under control. I don’t envy the positions of some government officials.

That's just an irrational position. Of course it matters as now companies can tell workers to come or be fired. All irresponsible people can go out, spread the virus further, overwhelm healthcare and kill thousands more.

And the way it is done just showd how the US is going bananas:

> Republicans who brought the lawsuit had asked the justices to side with them but to stay their ruling for about a week so legislators and Evers could work out a new plan to deal with the pandemic.

> The justices declined to do that and had their ruling take effect immediately. ...

> With no COVID-19 policies in place, bars, restaurants and concert halls are allowed to reopen — unless local officials implement their own restrictions. That raises the prospect of a patchwork of policies, with rules varying significantly from one county to the next.

Except if you have children.

Because without a lockdown order you (may) need to send them to school.

(depends on legality of homeschool in your jurisdiction, most of Europe forbids it, also depends on your ability to provide it)

Or a job/employer who requires physical presence. Hello, Elon!

"The government appears generally too incompetent to figure out how to lower R0 low enough to eradicate the virus"

There is no universe where that was ever going to happen absent herd immunity. It was never a declared goal by any major government and I doubt you could find a single quote from a qualified professional suggesting that is a realistic approach.

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