What is the size of the population of amateurs and what is the size of the population of experts? I am guessing the former is a lot bigger than the latter meaning more outcomes to pick from when retroactively trying to assign credit for accuracy.
You don't need a PhD to gain enough knowledge of covid from literature to speculate meaningfully on an internet forum, especially if you already have a graduate degree and practice research, as many people undoubtedly on HN do.
That said, I think statistics is like most other skills in that you get better at it the more you do it. All things being equal, I would trust the person who has spent more time thinking about a subject.
In fact that was one of the earliest common sources to mention ACE2 receptors. A month or so later there is at least one study looking at nicotine patches as prophylactic and/or treatment for covid. I'm having trouble finding the reddit thread, standby.
http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/?s=covid
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https://marginalrevolution.com/?s=covid
https://marginalrevolution.com/about
Those are two blogs that I think everyone should subscribe to.
arnoldkling.com is particularly interesting because it seems to have unusually high quality in the comments section.
>Having said all that, I am also dismayed that laymen put such pressure on epidemiologists to make forecasts. Imagine if it was your job when you see a leaf falling from a tree 40 feet overhead to place your foot on the exact spot where you “forecast” that the leaf will land.
I don't think I made any complaint, did I?
This forum is becoming more inexplicably unusual every day - provide objectively quality responses to a specific request, and get downvoted, with a side order of insult to boot.
So what if you did? What if I had made a criticism of experts, do you then downvote every other comment I make, regardless of its quality?
I would very much like to hear your justification.
EDIT: It might be a good idea for you to subscribe to the two blogs I mentioned above. It sounds like criticism of experts is something you haven't had a lot of exposure to.