How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th?
That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Put a note on your calendar to check again in 7 days.
Meanwhile, our testing rates have shot up to the ~7500/day range and our positive test rate has gone from ~25% down to 13.2% today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVH...
https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9...
The lockdown and resulting economic damage is much less an effort of state enforcement than it is individuals being (correctly) terrified to engage in commerce unless absolutely necessary.
What makes you so sure that average people should be CORRECTLY terrified of this virus?
If I'm in a high-risk category, I get it. But what about others? Are the rates of severe infection remotely high in people who aren't elderly, immuno-compromised, or with underlying conditions?
Keep in mind, the advice on this SHOULD be different depending on where you are. NYC? Sure, be incredibly vigilant. Nebraska? Probably not a big deal.
Looking at all the trackers I have bookmarked I'm not seeing much of an indication of this. Yes, confirmed cases seem to be up in the last week, but that seems to track with increased testing (a good thing). The rate of positives is showing a decline over the same time period.
More indicative of an outbreak would be increased hospitalizations or deaths. Hospital bed usage has been at the same level since mid April, and deaths have been at a steady 1 to 3 per day since the end of April.
Sources:
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test?state=NE
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/nebr...
and
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/nebraska-coronav...
are the two I count on the most. I don't really trust any of the confirmed case counts to matter much since testing isn't consistent. In most parts of the state you can't get tested unless you're exhibiting symptoms.
One of the local hospitals reported that they're currently at 50% ICU capacity just with COVID-19 patients.
The reason you have a few hot spots WITHIN Nebraska is due to 4 different meat processing plants in 4 different counties. The worst hit county, Dakota County, is home to a massive Tyson facility.
Do those workers magically teleport elsewhere after work? Do they not go to the grocery? Do some of them go to church? Do they not wind up in the local hospital?
You don't just ignore inconvenient data.
The point I'm making is that if this was a dispersed infection that was spreading through normal community interactions it would be much worse and harder to contain than if it's at a few facilities..
It's almost like depending on where you are and what the data says you should have a different action to optimize the outcome... And that's the point. This one size fits all everybody act like we live in Wuhan isn't working well.
50% of Asymptomatic and 80% of Symptomatic cases on the Diamond Princess had ground glass opacity on CT scans. Usually indicates irreversible lung damage. Care to gamble on decreased lung capacity for the rest of your life?
I'd say anyone drawing conclusions from a a few weeks data has a 50% chance of getting burned at this point.
Point is I think the opposite of what you're saying might happen here, i.e. regulations loosen and there's going to be a disproportionate number of exposures as a place not so tightly regulated
Go here and scroll down to Cases by US States/Territories per Day and highlight GA, FL, and TX then play with the metrics. All three seem pretty stable so far. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.
How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-m...
Keep in mind that the young person might be a medical worker, or in the family of a medical worker.
There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases.
However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28.
By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K).
This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.
What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US and certainly wasn't during the weeks of US Spring Break (ca. mid-Mar)?
In any case, you are mistaken that "we have not seen the spike take place". [0] See, especially, the map "generated by Tectonix GEO and X-Mode Social" about 1/3 of the way down the page.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-c...
Plane tickets were bought, credit card spending took place, cell phone towers were pinged, hotel reservations had names linked to them, relatives, friends or colleagues aware of the whereabouts and can be interviewed post-mortem?
For what it's worth, they're able to pinpoint specific parties or night club performances https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identif... https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-...
Two weeks is the period within > 99% cases exhibit symptoms. The median incubation is between 4 and 6 days.
Hello from Peru! Where I have been in lockdown for 58 days straight and counting...
We 100% do not have military threatening arrest for going out. At this point, many (rural) police districts and politicians are even saying they won't enforce the stay-home orders anymore.
So. Yeah. Not quite the same.
Summary: under control, but still not great.
Perú: there are 992 for the entire country (195 are still free).
Parent is referring to weeks and weeks of predictions that Florida would be utterly decimated because of large Spring Break parties, taking a long time to shut down in the first place, beaches not closing down for a long time, etc.
Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.
Almost the exact time most states started stay-at-home orders.