How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th?
That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Put a note on your calendar to check again in 7 days.
Meanwhile, our testing rates have shot up to the ~7500/day range and our positive test rate has gone from ~25% down to 13.2% today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wrGsD3T_JIvKwsudQwVH...
The lockdown and resulting economic damage is much less an effort of state enforcement than it is individuals being (correctly) terrified to engage in commerce unless absolutely necessary.
What makes you so sure that average people should be CORRECTLY terrified of this virus?
If I'm in a high-risk category, I get it. But what about others? Are the rates of severe infection remotely high in people who aren't elderly, immuno-compromised, or with underlying conditions?
Keep in mind, the advice on this SHOULD be different depending on where you are. NYC? Sure, be incredibly vigilant. Nebraska? Probably not a big deal.
Looking at all the trackers I have bookmarked I'm not seeing much of an indication of this. Yes, confirmed cases seem to be up in the last week, but that seems to track with increased testing (a good thing). The rate of positives is showing a decline over the same time period.
More indicative of an outbreak would be increased hospitalizations or deaths. Hospital bed usage has been at the same level since mid April, and deaths have been at a steady 1 to 3 per day since the end of April.
Sources:
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test?state=NE
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/nebr...
and
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/nebraska-coronav...
are the two I count on the most. I don't really trust any of the confirmed case counts to matter much since testing isn't consistent. In most parts of the state you can't get tested unless you're exhibiting symptoms.
One of the local hospitals reported that they're currently at 50% ICU capacity just with COVID-19 patients.
The reason you have a few hot spots WITHIN Nebraska is due to 4 different meat processing plants in 4 different counties. The worst hit county, Dakota County, is home to a massive Tyson facility.
Do those workers magically teleport elsewhere after work? Do they not go to the grocery? Do some of them go to church? Do they not wind up in the local hospital?
You don't just ignore inconvenient data.
The point I'm making is that if this was a dispersed infection that was spreading through normal community interactions it would be much worse and harder to contain than if it's at a few facilities..
It's almost like depending on where you are and what the data says you should have a different action to optimize the outcome... And that's the point. This one size fits all everybody act like we live in Wuhan isn't working well.
50% of Asymptomatic and 80% of Symptomatic cases on the Diamond Princess had ground glass opacity on CT scans. Usually indicates irreversible lung damage. Care to gamble on decreased lung capacity for the rest of your life?
I'd say anyone drawing conclusions from a a few weeks data has a 50% chance of getting burned at this point.
Point is I think the opposite of what you're saying might happen here, i.e. regulations loosen and there's going to be a disproportionate number of exposures as a place not so tightly regulated
https://compote.slate.com/images/6e5b79c5-c6db-47ab-95cd-7c9...
Go here and scroll down to Cases by US States/Territories per Day and highlight GA, FL, and TX then play with the metrics. All three seem pretty stable so far. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.
What makes you say it "would've been relatively easy" given contact tracing is not widespread in the US and certainly wasn't during the weeks of US Spring Break (ca. mid-Mar)?
In any case, you are mistaken that "we have not seen the spike take place". [0] See, especially, the map "generated by Tectonix GEO and X-Mode Social" about 1/3 of the way down the page.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/florida-spring-break-c...
Plane tickets were bought, credit card spending took place, cell phone towers were pinged, hotel reservations had names linked to them, relatives, friends or colleagues aware of the whereabouts and can be interviewed post-mortem?
For what it's worth, they're able to pinpoint specific parties or night club performances https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/09/pasadena-identif... https://ktla.com/news/local-news/former-rancho-palos-verdes-...
Keep in mind that the young person might be a medical worker, or in the family of a medical worker.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/13/elon-m...
There were 58 deaths reported by 3/14. If you assume that mortality is 1% (probably on the high side, but good enough for estimates), that translates to ~6k cases.
However, since we know that deaths lag cases by 1-3 weeks (let's assume 2 weeks for the analysis), we should be looking at deaths two weeks from 3/14, which would be 3/28.
By 3/28, there were ~3k deaths from COVID-19, meaning that the true estimate of the number of cases from 3/14 is likely around 270,000 cases (estimate range is 130K - 800K).
This also means that there were about 8.5 million cases in the US on May 1st (I happen to think mortality is closer to 0.5%, so that would be ~17 million cases instead), and that we've most likely crossed the 10 (or 20) million case mark by now.
How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
Two weeks is the period within > 99% cases exhibit symptoms. The median incubation is between 4 and 6 days.
Hello from Peru! Where I have been in lockdown for 58 days straight and counting...
We 100% do not have military threatening arrest for going out. At this point, many (rural) police districts and politicians are even saying they won't enforce the stay-home orders anymore.
So. Yeah. Not quite the same.
Summary: under control, but still not great.
Perú: there are 992 for the entire country (195 are still free).
Parent is referring to weeks and weeks of predictions that Florida would be utterly decimated because of large Spring Break parties, taking a long time to shut down in the first place, beaches not closing down for a long time, etc.
Florida, like apparently everywhere else in the US, has been perpetually “two weeks away” for the past six weeks from becoming New York City.
Almost the exact time most states started stay-at-home orders.
330 million * 50% * 0.005 = 825k die. 5-10x in the hospital is 4 million to 8 million. Those are big impacts.
Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them?
1. IHME, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
The argument re: old/sick people is a combination of "these people have fewer years left to live anyways, making deaths less impactful" and "this is a smaller subset of the population that can be isolated while the rest are set free".
> Some people want to argue the next thing "those are mostly old people or sick people", so too bad for them?
No, they are most vulnerable and should therefor treated differently than other groups that are not. They also don't tend to work. Considering that ~20%-50% of covid deaths are nursing home residents, protecting them should be priority, not shutting it all down in hope it will dry up over the next 3 months, it won't.
I think people are smarter and more accepting of the status quo than those who are making the most noise. As for those who are overburdened by the lockdown (i.e. lost jobs), its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control.
I live in California and I can tell you that people are already extremely over this shit. Go out and about and hardly anyone is wearing masks, hardly anyone is social distancing. Some people are trying ... but you are only as strong as your weakest link. It's tough to keep up stringent personal standards when everyone around you has said fuck it and given up.
So I completely 110% agree with the parent commenter that people have already been demonstrating they don't want to comply. I mean, it's human nature. No one wants to be told what to do.
The hospital boat off the shore is completely empty (it treated a total of 77 patients). Most of our hospitals are significantly below capacity. We've all been sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for the apocalypse and nothing is happening. Just crickets. Unavailable unemployment funds, closed businesses, lost jobs.
The one thing everyone is learning from this is that the government will not help you. It doesn't matter how liberal or conservative your state is, or whether you believe most in federal or state governments ... everyone is doing a shitty job in one way or another.
So if the government is not going to do fuck-all for me, why should I do fuck-all for the government?
I think a lot of people don't realize this. My wife's friend is a nurse shift supervisor at our local hospital. The hospital is practically empty because there are no elective surgeries. They've been laying off nurses over the past month. She had her hours reduced. She's expecting to be laid off soon too.
If the whole point of this is to buy time for hospitals, doing so to the point where they have to start laying off staff members is a pretty dumb way to do it.
I have a large labral tear in my shoulder, an impaction fracture on my humerus, there’s a bone bruise with bone marrow leaking out, my glenohumeral ligament is stripped from the glenoid rim, I have a new area of full-thickness articular cartilage loss...
...And because CA suspended ALL elective surgeries statewide for a month, my surgeon has a month backlog before he can get to me. Until then I cannot perform any of the activities that keep me healthy and sane. Also my arm is at risk of dislocating in my sleep until I get surgery
Suspending elective surgeries was the dumbest possible decision we could have made yet our leaders won’t ever admit that they fucked up and completely botched their covid response.
Failure to maintain an adequate stockpile of PPE is probably what made the lockdowns necessary, more than anything else. If everyone in the US could have been given masks and instructed to keep their distance from other people, that would probably have been enough to allow us to lock down only the most vulnerable. At least we could have begun with that approach, and moved on to heavier measures only if/when they proved necessary.
Y was more than they had to they panicked
When X was found to be a massive over estimation they still doubled down and said "well in 2 week we will be over run"
2 weeks came, and it was "well in 2 weeks we will be over run"
2 weeks later and "well in 2 weeks...."
There was also very poor visibility on the likely case growth, because testing was so limited. It's only the last couple of weeks where there are enough tests to be testing people with likely exposure instead of just people that were gravely sick (so now healthcare workers and first responders and other essential workers can be tested without requiring that they be symptomatic).
It's a bit of a birthday paradox problem in that if you have large groups of people not social distancing in an area with pretty low prevalence like CA, the risk to any one person of contracting the virus could be extremely low, while the risk that some of those people will contract is extremely high.
Americans are, for better or worse, really not used to thinking in collectivist terms.
Think of it this way; if 2/3rds need to become infected before this crap is over, don't you want to be in the 1/3 that doesn't risk death/hospitalization?
So - you may have seen someone like me (who doesn't want to touch his face or mask) driving with a mask.
It's a big state. Compliance varies a lot by area, and by local culture. Just because there are some people who don't take social distancing precautions doesn't mean that those who have the civic sense to take those precautions should abandon their efforts.
The rates are higher in LA/OC too, not just the absolute numbers.
The LA metro area population (which includes OC) has 13 million people. There are 36k confirmed infections. So the confirmed infection rate is .28%. There are 1600 deaths so far, so the death rate is .01%.
The Bay Area population is 7.75 million, the # of infections stands at 10k, which is confirmed infection rate of .13%, and deaths are 360, which is a death rate of .005%.
It's absolutely not a contest, but the rates are what they are. If you choose to expand either areas' stats out to include their neighboring counties, the differences in the rates don't change much, but will eventually converge with CA wide rates, since this disease is most prevalent in urban areas.
Both the Bay Area and LA/OC appear to have lower infection rates than many other urban parts of the country and world, but the Bay Area is currently seeing both a lower infection and death rate than Southern California. Only time will tell if that holds.
Stats from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_metropolitan_area
Fortunately, it seems to be leveling off somewhat, except for Santa Barbara. I really, really hope we can keep it that way.
I also noticed that traffic hasn't really changed in my neighborhood and people all seem to be ignoring stay-at-home, but have gradually come to the conclusion that that doesn't have anything to do with the actual stay-at-home compliance rate.
Unfortunately, LA is governed by people who do not understand what "the economy" actually means, and view it as a thing to disdain. They will not bear the costs of lost jobs, lost medical screenings, lost K-12 education, and lost social services (both now and pursuant to the city budget shortfalls).
> its on the governments to provide the safety net until we have everything under control.
There is no plan for "under control." We are still looking at a scenario where 50-70% of the population gets the virus. There is a possibility of a vaccine, yes — but no one credible suggests we ought to be planning for it in the next year.
Plan for a 2-year shutdown order, or plan to reopen soon. A three month shutdown, in the middle of that range, doesn't make any sense at all.
That's not really working out now. Plenty of people in WA state as well as NY state are waiting on unemployment claims dating back to March. Fed is backstopping large corp. losses while the every day person gets nothing. WA state is rolling out a "science and data" dashboard that looks like an MS Word clipart project from an 8 year old kid.
Our governments are mostly inept at anything resembling complexity. Something ten times more complicated and difficult like this shows how slow they are to action.
This was foreseeable. The WA state subduction zone report shows that in a simulated catastrophe due to liquifaction / earthquake in the Pacific Northwest, mean time for government intervention for aid-related activities was on the order of 3-4 weeks.
We talk about how large corporations privatize gains and socialize losses; government agencies are quick to act on authoritarian measures like lockdowns but slow to act on remedies to keep them going in an equitable fashion. The only surprising thing ongoing in the nation right now is the degree of ineptitude of our government agencies. Not even I thought they were this bad at getting aid to people.
Let's be clear-- there is no true safety net for middle-income professionals. We can draw down savings and cross our fingers that this resume gap doesn't kill a professional career. And that's just the financial and career consequences. There definitely are other consequences of unemployment too.
I feel fortunate not to live in L.A. county but the public health response my state is not a lot less draconian. I just am astounded. I would love to wrap everyone and everything in bubble wrap as much as the next person to protect everyone from a very dangerous world but this is too much.
There are limits to this and the burden is distributed very unevenly. If you have a spa, your business is taking a big hit , but the landlord is not required to stop asking for rent. We would have to switch the whole economy to a non profit model, otherwise the lucky ones make out like bandits and others are being driven out of business.
If the government wanted to provide support to keep everyone roughly where they were before the pandemic, that's great. But picking and choosing is really unfair.
And it seems to be hurting small business owners and the middle class the most. Unemployment payments max out at what, $4000 per month? Meanwhile a middle class professional in the Bay Area might pay that much just for rent, before considering food or other expenses.
Unless you just want infinite money printing. The Federal Unemployment increase ends in July, and it highly unlikely this will be extended, so the county of LA has no ability to print more money, or really extend their debt
LA and CA has a real chance of going bankrupt,
Further I am sure employee will stick around for a long time when their paychecks are replaced with "IOU's"
So sure technically there is no bankrupcy court for the entire state, the fact remains that a State can absolutely enter in to a condition that is more or less the same thing as bankrupcy. The feds can just print more money, and most likely CA would beg the feds to do just that to bail them out should that happen
Local municipalities and counties can absolutely go bankrupt. Which is more likely in this situation
I can't wait to see what happens when restaurants reopen. I'm definitely heading to a bar asap.
There are a lot of entitled people around here, and a lot of folks doing plague cosplay (wearing a mask around their neck like a talisman, gathering but moving to "safe" distance when other people draw close, etc.)
This is the problem with a website for desk jockeys commenting on orders that don't impact their livelihoods.
For any individual, there is a cost/benefit analysis for the lock downs.
The cost is a hell of a lot lower for you and me than it is for restaurant, construction, factory, etc workers who have lost their livelihoods. Let's not forget about the small business owners and independent contractors.
These folks are incurring a much higher cost, and as far as the government assisting them, how smooth do you think that is going?
Have you personally gone and applied for unemployment benefits, or an SBA loan to keep your business afloat?
The government safety net isn't ideal, or pleasant, to deal with. Mayor Garcetti hasn't done well with reforming the LA government, nor dozens of predecessors. The state government of California isn't fun to deal with either.
You probably don't have kids either, if you fit the typical demographic on HN.
A complete failure of empathy on the part of members of the professional/managerial class, who bear little costs of the lockdown towards those who pay the most.
This stay at home order doesn't seem to be informed by updated models and data on this illness. The disease is highly contagious, and deadly at an unacceptably high rate to certain high-risk categories of the population. Those people should change their behavior.
The "wait 2 weeks" thing is what I keep hearing people who are stuck in the "only lockdowns will work" mindset say about every place that has lifted or not implemented lockdowns. It's almost as if they are hoping for it.
Let's be clear: If Georgia and Texas are fine a week from now, that will be good news for the whole country. Even if this good news proves your previously held opinion wrong, it will still be good news. I sense that people on here are hoping for bad news instead, because then they would be right.
Your statement about people being "smarter". Let's be real here, what you mean by "smart" is people who share your beliefs about the best solution to this virus. As if anyone knows with certainty what the best path is. Nobody does. We are all trying our best with the latest data. Except for politicians, who are hell bent on proving that their initial, poorly informed decisions are indeed the way to go by doubling down on them.
I saw one chart which allegedly mapped the effect of the lockdown over four weeks with various various indexes:
COVID - significant drop. Death from other medical items - even more significant drop. Death from traffic accidents - even moreso.
Number of deaths from suicide - significant jump. From drug overdose - even more significant jump. Number of mental breakdowns and newly diagnosed illnesses - jump. Number of deaths from people not getting care they needed - jump.
I cannot find that chart anymore, and when I tried to verify the items, I could not.
Anyone who knows the chart I am referring to, or generally reliably sources for these things (and not just COVID deaths), please reply!
If the drop into poverty as people lose jobs create slums, gangs, and muggings, there will be a lot more deaths, and those will also offset the numbers.
So, even quality of life aside, I am not sure we come out ahead even on saving lives.
I would like data though, since anyone can speculate. Can someone point to real data?
Every % rise of unemployment in Europe during the financial crisis resulted in a 3.5% drop in all cause mortality, and that includes a ~35% increase in suicides. We can probably extrapolate that for a scenario where business as usual also kills a good amount more people due to a pandemic.
Clearly the US, being the US, could be different due to cultural differences in how the poor and underemployed are treated.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009174351...
Not if they get counted as a COVID death. You better believe that drug overdose death is getting a test if there's federal reimbursement in play.
I recognize that you're making a joke here, but that's categorically not true. Mental-health related deaths have gone up, and will continue to go up. A lot.
Ok, i'm only being mildly sarcastic. Flashbacks from stories told by a grandfather and father. Honestly, if someone told me last year I would be typing this in a discussion on HN on this topic I would have told them they were insane. And here we are, people on HN actually discussing "stay at home" as if it was a not a big deal.
These are the people who work for Google and Facebook and Instagram and Twitter? It horrifies me. It should terrify the population.
Hesitate to bring it up since its so contentious but this is actually probably a huge side benefit of the Alameda County go slow approach. For the interim county health advisor, there's no benefit for going out on a limb and providing the rubber stamp to allow a plant to open as they'd ultimately individually be scape-goated if things went wrong. All politicians above would be free to claim - "I wasn't consulted on such details". Now since the plant is open without full approvals, all legal liability is on the private company for any health issues that arise. In fact the state hasn't really officially said the plant could open and so is free from liability and now that the president has chimed in, the interim county health advisor is completely free from liability.
It's a great get out of jail free card, release from liability stance as the individual or company is against government orders.
If the government wants to limit its liability it should stop telling people what to do and let them decide for themselves.
> For the interim county health advisor, there's no benefit for going out on a limb and providing the rubber stamp to allow a plant to open as they'd ultimately individually be scape-goated if things went wrong.
So the only alternative is for the government, after imposing the costs of the lockdown on everybody, to simply refuse to accept the costs of reopening?
The best political safe alternative for all players involved is to do what's happening now; the government provides a hard line on guidance and then is lax on enforcement and lets the plant re-open and begin production. If it goes well (and hopefully it goes well), it goes well.
If it doesn't go well, then people who were advocating taking the risk and with the most to gain if had it gone well, are ultimately responsible for the downside liability. Which seems fair?
Called out by whom? I won't. I don't expect the government to provide me guidance. I'm an adult human being and I don't need a parent.
> The best political safe alternative
I have no interest in a "political safe alternative". Politicians worrying more about their political safety than the good of the people is what got us into this mess. Without a culture of "political safe alternative" the FDA would not have had the power to keep state and local health authorities from coming up with their own testing protocols when it was clear the FDA and the CDC weren't up to the job. And without a culture of too many people waiting for "guidance" from the government, people would not have waited to take obvious common sense precautions against a possible pandemic until the government and the media told them to, way too late.
> Which seems fair?
I have no problem with people who decide for themselves what to do with their own lives having to live with the consequences.
What I have a problem with is someone else claiming the power to decide for me what I am allowed to do, and the only consequences to them if they screw up being "political".
1.) Individual (or Company) A does some potentially unsafe activity and the Government says hastily - "Great, sure; continue!" or doesn't provide any guidance (edited).
2.) Individual (or Company) B is affected negatively - so negatively in fact that they decide to sue not only Individual (or Company) A but the Government as well since the Government said everything was on the up and up either through explicit approval or inaction (i.e. Individual B thinks the Government should have acted) - (edited).
The Government then loses the lawsuit and uses taxpayer money to pay the settlement. Then Taxpayer A, B and C proceed to also sue the government due to gross mismanagement of tax payer dollars and the government loses that as well. And now the rest of us Taxpayers D thru Z have to pay for all these settlements.
Who gave the government the power to make that decision unilaterally?
> Individual (or Company) B is affected negatively - so negatively in fact that they decide to sue not only Individual (or Company) A but the Government as well since the Government said everything was on the up and up.
So if the government were out of the picture, B would simply be suing A. There would be nobody else to sue. And the taxpayers would not have to pay anything.
So what value, exactly, is the government adding here?
So I should have my freedom restricted because other people can't handle theirs responsibly?
No, some people's choices impact some other people in serious, often fatal ways.
My wife and I started taking precautions more than two months ago. We have drastically cut down the number of shopping trips we make--one of us used to go to the grocery store, drugstore, or whatever every other day or so, now it's about once every 10 days, and we make sure to stock up so we don't have to go more often. We wear mask and gloves whenever we do go to the store or any other public place where we can't reliably social distance. When we walk our dogs, we stay well away from anyone else.
How have our choices impacted anyone else negatively?
No, I've exercised my own freedom to choose what's best for me.
> I’m not sure what we’re arguing about.
First, you made an obviously wrong factual claim, so I called you on it. It is not true that "everyone’s choices impact everyone else in serious, often fatal, ways".
Second, this wrong factual claim is not harmless, because, as you yourself note, it is being used as justification for the government to exercise draconian powers to restrict everyone's freedom. The government cannot be trusted to exercise such powers responsibly. No government can, because governments are run by humans, and no humans can be trusted with that much power over other humans. That was supposed to be the key lesson that got the United States of America started as an independent country, but we seem to have forgotten it.
A 14 day decline in new cases while maintaining a testing rate 200/100,000.
A number of people on here have made this claim, and every time I try and point out that it's the complete and exact opposite of the truth it gets downvoted. It seems to be something everyone on HN firmly believes. Maybe I should give up? Trying to get coronavirus testing-related comparisons to bear any resemblance to actual numbers feels more and more like eternally tilting at windmills.
(Admittedly, the media has done a good job on this one. There was even a really bizarre, cynical part in the last Trump press conference where he claimed that all US states are now testing more than South Korea and a reporter accused him of making "this a global competition", as though it was him and not the press that had been pushing this comparison - and all the media discussion became about his row with that journalist, ensuring that no-one heard about the underlying facts and updated their false belief that the US was behind South Korea in testing due to the federal government fucking up. Masterfully done. Practically Trumpian.)
Now, Israel is genuinely doing more testing than the US, but you'd kind of hope for that from a much smaller country with a big globally-relevant pharmaceutical industry.
And the quality issues can be solved as well, it just makes point one even worse -- it'll be that much harder to maintain the testing rate and the quality.
But they are achievable goals.
This all seems in line with what anyone would have expected. Anyone who thought that on June 1 when the stay-at-home orders officially end everyone would just jump back into normal life and it would magically be safe clearly hasn't been paying attention.
The difference between California and states like Georgia that have "opened up" actually seems to be quite minimal. Some people are taking more risks (which is not really being stopped in either place), the majority are still being very cautious. That's bad news for people hoping that the small businesses that have been financially hurt would spring back immediately, but hopefully good news for where we are in containment of the virus. And, knock on wood, at least for now it seems to be enough to keep the disease spread from ramping back up.
I still think it would have been nice to just go all the way with the lockdown from day 1 back in March, actually enforce the rules and keep more people inside, and squashed the curve faster so that by now we'd be a lot more open than we are. But instead we chose the route of making most people only moderately miserable instead for a long time, instead of even slightly more miserable but for a shorter time.
(Not to mention the infection rate is a really lagging indicator)
> a lockdown for such a long time is crazy.
And people will rebel, and the infection rate will spike yet again, and people will die, and the lockdowns will be imposed with force.
Better to listen and understand than to disobey and risk worse. What's the expression? Regulations are written with blood?
meanwhile... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056
Do you have something that reinforces this? JHU dashboard data extrapolation (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map) and revised models (https://www.livescience.com/trump-administration-models-pred...) starkly disagree.
If people mill about and it doesn't stop till we reach herd immunity, imagine at 50% of pop, 0.3 or 0.5% die, that's a big number 330mil * .05 * 0.005 = 825k deaths. IHME estimates assume we won't just keep standing around until half of us get it. The fools walking around are competing with that vision.
Why so defeatist?
Also, there's mounting evidence that social distancing is being done socially (by people making their own choices) as much or more than by governments.
In which case it's easy to feel like it's all for nothing.
I personally still support it but I can see why people are frustrated, and I think as this goes on you can't just extend it without some really clear and transparent communication.
that is unknown. If anything, the flu experience shows that the hot dry air minimizes transmission by minimizing the lifetime of the exhaled aerosol mini droplets which carry the virus.
The rate will most probably spike again in the Fall, lockdown or no lockdown, because of the colder moist air then, and I think it is very misleading to promise people the lockdown avoidance later in exchange for a larger lockdown now.
Governments at all levels seem to be doing only lockdown, which basically means doing nothing by the governments themselves and just putting the burden squarely on the people shoulders and waiting hoping that the issue resolves on its own. Where are the true government actions to fight pandemic - i mean at least bare minimum - masks, testing, contact tracing? Why Whole Foods, not the government, should give away free masks? I guess, no money for masks in the $6T dollars that have just been printed and have propelled the stock market back into the bubble.
I'd love some experimental data for once (with regards to SARS-CoV-2, a lot is modeling, and a lot less is bench work) to know if this is true or not (there are a few studies but most of them aren't that great, at least the ones I've read).
Very true. There should be no shortages of tests, masks or other protective equipment. Instead the stock market is going up.
"Comply or be killed" will be an interesting order, I look forward to seeing that one go out.
Civil tickets. Revocation of business licenses. Fines. Arrests. Tear gas.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/port-of-seattle-pl...