Yeah, but that puts all value add in waymo or Tesla's hands, not Uber's. Uber will have no advantage, and cannot charge juicy margins.
Waymo is more interesting since things like Google Maps routing and Waze being under the same roof give them a ton of logistics expertise to potentially tap, Alphabet also has a shitton of capital if they wanted to expend it, and they could look at it as a long play where they aren't just getting the cost of the ride back, but they're also collecting all the data. (However, it's not clear to me that this is much more data than Google already HAS just from phone location history.
Unless TSLA or Waymo decided that they didn't want to deal with a taxi network there shouldn't be any reason they couldn't form an independent company to absorb the loan risk ( with a PE partner potentially ).
They could purchase 100k vehicles in a blink of an eye, outfit them with AI, deploy in NYC Chicago Atlanta Austin LA and bam users will convert. They don't need to cover the globe, just the absolute most lucrative cities (which Uber relies on to subsidize smaller cities).
Additionally, I am not convinced the transition from largest taxi service to AV will be smooth sailing from a personnel perspective. Not having to manage the politics of a deeply embedded global supply chain is one of Tesla's advantages relative to big auto. At some point, drivers may say F* this in dealing with Uber which Google avoids from the get go.
When I visited Japan last year, I wasn't going to bother finding out what competitors existed. Just firing up the uber app is no-brainer in comparison.
This is similar to the dichotomy of McDonald's being almost universally considered bad junk food, yet they are packed in roadside locations in small towns because they are popular rest areas among travellers whereas local mom-and-pop competitors are far less successful. Brand is a powerful thing.
The car is $30-50k with a lifetime of what, 10 years?
The driver needs to earn $40k/yr.
The vast majority of the cost is the driver - insurance and fuel are next, ultimately followed by vehicle capex and maintenance.
Also don't underestimate the amount of local news coverage the driverless taxi will get - combined with the "there's no rude, smelly person driving me".
You're not counting the RD cost that needs to be recouped. You're overestimating the trust people will have with "oh didn't that once kill a person"-autopilot will have.
yes of course, but i included the big ones.
>You're not counting the RD cost that needs to be recouped.
Majority will be sunk costs by the time anyone is making money. But obviously, they will charge what the market will bear - but the margin improvement vs driven vehicles will be very significant.
The first robotaxi fleet be able to put any driver-based taxi company out of business simply by undercutting on price for as long as it takes. The only enemy is time to build that base - but the first company to successfully bring a robotaxi to market will necessarily have absurdly deep pockets because they invested the R&D necessary to build something that drives itself. If someone has a robotaxi that isn't Uber, Uber is going to be in very big trouble.
Also, I'm not really invested because I don't care - but it's really hard to overestimate the implications this has to the cost of (non-mass) transportation.
I don’t use Uber cus of ideological reasons. A lot of people, even in this community, are the same.
Uber/Lyft marketshare in all US markets tell another story. This community is a small echo chamber and thus rather uninformed.
I even forgot what my ideological reason was, something about them stealing tips.
I still don’t think riders are fickle like that, comparing prices amongst multiple ride share app and uninterested in promotions. I think people pick one and stick with it, more out of habit that anything else, not likely to change unless something crazy happens
I was all on Uber until they had some old controversy that I totally forgot about, but I’m not going to use it again, not for something as small as saving a couple dollars or a few minutes time difference
They're running more bonuses at timeframe, e.g. it's more costly.
The airline example is great. Because that's exactly the direction ridehailing is going. Just look at Uber rewards. At least with an airline you actually book weeks in advance. With ridehailing you're buying super close to the actual event.
Beieeve me, Uber has done one thing well and that's consumer ToM..