Compare Sweden to Vietnam: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23118554
Vietnam's quick action means that they're starting to reopen now, whereas we're going to be locked down for months yet.
Vietnam's quick action means that they're starting to reopen now, whereas we're going to be locked down for months yet.
Wrong, with SARS-CoV-1 "immunity lasted between three to six years" [1]
[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20200424144554/https://newsnetwo...
The keyword there is lasting, we know immunity exists we just don't know for how long. If a vaccine could be distributed to enough people in a short enough time frame (we're talking billions and months) it could still wipe out the virus. But if that can't be done then mandatory vaccines for travelers could work.
> ...so what is the lockdown for again?
To keep the number of infections manageable and/or eradicate it entirely, it was never about stalling time for a vaccine.
I think it will work out 'ok' for Sweden only because COVID isn't that-that bad, but if death rates were a little higher and R0 a bit higher it could have been a disaster.
Specifically: " They do not need to be coerced into a lockdown because they can be trusted to act properly." This to me is ridiculous - it's not 'trust' that matters, but policy: if restaurants are open and many people go there ... well, that's hugely different from 'restaurants closed'. Same thing for almost everything else. How can you 'trust' people to do the right thing whey nobody knows what the right thing is? Even certain behaviors like hand-washing and masks need to be propagandized and 'nudged' in order for people to take them seriously.
It may very well be that 'soft shut-down' in the long run is the right balance ... but I'd be wary to claim a big win on this if it was mostly a guess.
Taiwan and Korea are clearly the winners, in the West I suggest it's Germany.
Spain has 550 deaths per million, Germany has 90. Most of the rest are in between.
UK, Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands etc. - not so good at all, though Switzerland did a good job of getting things under control after a breakout.
E. Europe has fared well, but there are lower testing and some questionable governance so well have to take a deeper look.
Sweden's position is untenable and possibly unethical given the unknowns, it was a huge gamble.
they will be tested, quarantined for two weeks, tested again, and then only if they test negative they will be able to interact with the rest of Vietnam. It's a hundred times easier than controlling a disease running wild in the population.
With this scenario you get no tourists and no business trip. Can you really call that re-opening? For how long such measures can last?
In the end, the Vietnamese will have more freedom than the Swedish. When countries that have put the virus under control agree to reopen borders against each other, Sweden will be left out.
You don't seem to understand that the more a population builds up immunity, and the less the virus can circulate in this population. So Sweden might end up being the place where you're the less likely to get the virus, if any.
Plus, for people under 65 and no pre-existing conditions, the risk from Covid-19 is negligible. Peaople under 65 represents a lot of tourists and business people already. I personally would go to Sweden without the slightest worry, but that's just me. In the end everybody will assess the risk by themselves, like grown-ups.
> In the end, the Vietnamese will have more freedom than the Swedish
Freedom within the country? Freedom to travel in other countries? Freedom to open their border and welcome foreigners? What do you mean exactly?
As long as the virus circulates in the world, and the population of a country was never exposed to it, then the epidemic is just waiting to happen. I don't see how a country like VN which has presumably not build up immunity at all can be in a good position.
If the virus disappears completely from the surface of the planet, then that's great news for VN. They will have managed to keep the virus out, and to safely re-open the borders. A great success.
But if the virus doesn't disappear, and lingers around for years, Vietnam will have to maintain draconian measures at the borders for a very long time. This will have a cost, and yes it hurts the economy, you can't deny that.
> When countries that have put the virus under control agree to reopen borders against each other
I don't know how you will define "put the virus under control". Good luck with that. And good luck handling all the travelers with two nationalities and two passports.