Comment by magicalist | Hacker News Reader

Comment by magicalist | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

> Check again. Your link backs up the chart I posted.

The chart you posted shows a total of just over 20k deaths in all of New York state between March 1st and April 25th, while the link I posted shows 27k deaths in NYC alone between March 11th and April 25th.

Your chart also shows about 4k non-coronavirus deaths, again across the whole state for that period, while the NYC-only stats show more than 10k "Deaths not known to be confirmed or probable COVID-19" in less than that amount of time.

Now repeat with double the population to account for the rest of the state (with lower coronavirus incidence) and another 10 days (about 20% of the time period in question) that had the normal incidence of non-coronavirus deaths.

So, no, nothing about that chart matches up to reality.

The link you posted shows 11k/16k deaths from COVID. Nothing about 27k. And the chart I posted doesn't show total deaths in NYC, but some selection of morbidities. Is it wrong? Probably. But official data also says heart attacks and strokes are massively down (60-80%), and covid is way up, and there are big incentive problems. I stand by the point.

The nyc.gov link magicalist posted reports:

11460 confirmed covid-19 deaths 5213 probable but unconfirmed covid 19 deaths 10964 not know to be probable and not confirmed deaths (all non-covid deaths)

Which adds up to 27637 total deaths.

Your graph shows ~ 20000 total deaths. That's significantly different.

Also, the sources for the graph you posted are:

1. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html which as far as I can get it to show, only counts deaths from pneumonia regardless of cause. So I really don't understand why they listed that as a source for the graph as that information isn't displayed.

2. covidtracking.com Which could be the source of their numbers for covid deaths but that leaves no source for their totals.

Thanks for correcting me, and to magicalist. I apologize. This was difficult to find, but here's the breakdown for causes of death each week:

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-a...

In New York, total deaths from heart-related diseases is up, not down, since covid.

I do see some weirdness in other states, but not New York.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com