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To me this indicates that the financial markets are a terrible measure for the economic experience of most citizens. They are their own system that’s not connected to most people’s economic reality. I have no problem with that but for national policies we should stop looking at financial markets or GDP but try to optimize for average income or purchasing power.

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The market reflects, rightly, that while the situation doesn’t look good for many certain fundamentals haven’t changed drastically YET.

For example, infrastructure is still intact, demand is theoretically still there just suppressed, capacity to produce is still theoretically there.

Unemployment is based on employers short to medium term outlook. I.e. Can I pay this person for a month and will the person be a net positive?

So the two measures differ and in weird situations like now we see how much they differ.

You can’t bring a new business or new hires up to speed instantly. Not only are the lockdown months already lost but there’s a ramp up period. Further, some of the companies in the index likely won’t survive. Even if they will be replaced down the road that shouldn’t be reflected in the prices of currently existing companies.

The priced-in explanation is not plausible.

Or rather, it reflects that this what people believe.

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