We don't need to speculate - it is happening in Belarus. Sweden is quite close to a lock-down, but Belarus is far away from a lock-down. Lukaszenko is advising sport, especially on ice and vodka to fight off the virus.

Still, Belarus mobility statistics according to Google [0] are:

Retail & recreation: -16%

Transit stations: -20%

Workplaces: -25%

Their economic activity is certainly reduced right now. People do not want to expose themselves even if their leaders are downplaying it. BTW - Belarus was probably prepared the best in the world for pandemic with 11 beds per 1000 people vs. 5.8 beds per 1000 people in EU in 2010 [2].

So entering speculation again, IMF is projecting 6% GDP contraction in Belarus [1].

Another data point is Open Table (restaurants reservations) data [3] from USA. Most of the drop in reservations happened before lock-down. People decided to not go on their own - on average 73% down before restaurants were ordered to close. My prediction is that up-tick in states that are opening right now will be very small as well.

[0] https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-30_BY_Mobil...

[1] https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/BLR

[2] https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=...

[3] https://s4.freebeacon.com/up/2020/04/plot2.png