While there's some ambiguity, nothing in the state-level lockdowns prevents travel in a meaningful way (it's just a jurisdictional thing). But no one is travelling anyway, because no one is willing to sit in an airplane right now.
And Boeing sees that, and knows the recovery will be slow no matter when the official "end" of the lockdowns arrives.
With the coronavirus this is a huge 1-2 blow to Boeing.
I wonder how much of their go forward business will be military contracts, as the their civilian aviation business seems to be dead for the next 3-5 years.
They can get the 737 Max recertified to fly, but I think the damage to the reputation is done, so they probably will need to release a brand new plane to be competitive. Not sure on the design to production timeline for an airplane, but that's where I assumed 3-5 years.
That is getting more and more dubious every day. Do you have a source which says this is doable? To recap, the 737 Max was not only fitted with the MCAS to save money but because it was relying on being grandfathered in to be able to be certified at all. So if they are forced to make so much change to the MCAS to require recertification they will fail doing so.
The whole business case for the Max was to fend off the A320neo, and if airlines were going to have to retrain pilots, that's one less reason for legacy customers to stay.
That said, I don't think a "new design" ontop of the 737 airframe exists. The whole point of the 737 Max and its failures is that the airframe was old so they tried to make a radical design change and handle the shortcomings in fly-by-wire software, but who on earth is going to trust Boeing with that now?
... yes, because if I travel to Canada, the first thing I want to do is be stuck in quarantine for two weeks. Are you serious?
If global demand for flights is down even 20% then this means that the global demand for new planes is close to zero.