My prediction is if more cities around North America did post-mortem Covid tests of people who passed away in February, there's a good chance we'd find some deceased actually had Covid-19 similar to what California revealed earlier last week. Because of those findings, some researchers are now thinking community spread in places like the Bay Area may have started as early as January.

I say this because reading this article, they mention that Vietnam quarantined an entire district in Hanoi back in February when the entire country only had 10 cases at that point in time. They also banned travel from and to mainland China in early February. Those measures done early may have saved them from tens of thousands of infections. Vietnam has essentially relied on aggressive contact tracing coupled with strict lockdowns/quarantining.

Here in Canada, we brushed off suggestions of forced quarantines of incoming travelers or banning flights to/from Mainland China. We solely relied on travelers telling authorities if they experienced symptoms, which bit us in the tail when March came along and hundreds of new cases were popped up by the day.

We didn't reverse our stance on restrictive measures till the virus had gotten out of a control. Even now as the growth rate has flattened, we're still dealing with the fallout in long term care facilities as hundreds of elderly people have passed away due to caregivers/visitors unknowingly infecting them. That coupled with the growth of the virus in the homeless community has made it very challenging to sustainably contain the virus.

I think what frustrates me is that we knew we had weaknesses in our system, yet we decided to go with the non-proactive solution anyway. Even recently we didn't bother with random testing asymptomatic caregivers until after hundreds of people died. It's a lot harder to undo the damage than it is to be overly pre-cautious and prevent the worst case scenario from happening in the first place.