What is your reaction to Sweden's COVID track?
They didn't shut down daily life, and their hospitals are doing just fine. In fact, COVID cases and deaths have plateaued.
They didn't shut down daily life, and their hospitals are doing just fine. In fact, COVID cases and deaths have plateaued.
> data suggests the vast majority of the population have taken to voluntary social distancing, which is the crux of Sweden's strategy to slow the spread of the virus.
"This Japanese Island Lifted Its Coronavirus Lockdown Too Soon and Became a Warning to the World" https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/
Restrictions could start easing if you could manage an outbreak swiftly. This requires:
1) Enough tests that actually worked so you can SPOT an outbreak before it goes 3 weeks.
2) Enough resources in the medical system to handle an actual spike without collapsing
3) Enough protective equipment that won't disappear in the face of panic buying
This is the MINIMUM. Are we there yet?
Otherwise, you get Hokkaido.
Does it make any difference that the US has not "plateaued" if the number of active cases is rising slower than in Sweden, and the death rate is lower?
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Country, | Active Cases | Yesterday | Chg | % chg |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Sweden | 15,647 | 15,441 | 206 | 1.33% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Belgium | 28,602 | 28,255 | 347 | 1.23% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Oman | 1,675 | 1,655 | 20 | 1.21% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Georgia | 335 | 331 | 4 | 1.21% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Ecuador | 21,020 | 20,777 | 243 | 1.17% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Netherlands | 33,477 | 33,120 | 357 | 1.08% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| World | 1,928,133 | 1,908,936 | 19,197 | 1.01% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Latvia | 538 | 533 | 5 | 0.94% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Greece | 1,821 | 1,806 | 15 | 0.83% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Poland | 8,874 | 8,817 | 57 | 0.65% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Iraq | 473 | 470 | 3 | 0.64% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Cyprus | 659 | 655 | 4 | 0.61% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Lebanon | 541 | 538 | 3 | 0.56% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Portugal | 21,742 | 21,632 | 110 | 0.51% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Slovenia | 1,098 | 1,093 | 5 | 0.46% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Lithuania | 934 | 930 | 4 | 0.43% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Norway | 7,317 | 7,294 | 23 | 0.32% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Kuwait | 2,254 | 2,249 | 5 | 0.22% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Estonia | 1,364 | 1,361 | 3 | 0.22% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| USA | 813,655 | 812,966 | 689 | 0.08% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+
| Japan | 11,260 | 11,260 | 0 | 0.00% |
+-------------+--------------+-----------+--------+-------+Death count is at least somewhat less subject to such complications, and even there, it'd be much better to compare 7-day averages to smooth over reporting quirks.
If the numbers were really meaningless, it would probably be evident in their clustering or limited range. I noticed the contrary; I didn't post a complete chart because I figured more data would probably result in diminishing returns when urging people to question their beliefs.
Russia, by the way, in the same data set, has about 7.6% more active cases than yesterday. Brazil, 8.4%. Pakistan, 4.8%. So if you hypothesized that all the increases were in the approximate range of +1% to -1%, you would be quite wrong.
Conversely, Germany's figure is down 4.8% and Switzerland is down 6.2%.
It seems as though people for whatever reason fetishize Sweden, among other nordic countries, and I'm increasingly irritated by it. Partly because it reminds me of the current US president and his judgment of different countries as "shitholes" or not. People pretend that they are clearly seeing facts in an unbiased way while doing the opposite.
The Sweden angle has been pushed hard in conservative media circles. You’re seeing a reflection of that here.