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Comment by pjc50 | Hacker News Reader

What went wrong with Belgium??

Belgium counts confirmed deaths in hospitals, but also counts suspected deaths outside hospitals -- so it's including care homes and nursing homes.

These deaths can be about 50% of the total deaths.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/is-comparing-c...

> But such comparisons can be misleading. Unlike the UK, Italy or Spain, Belgium counts all coronavirus deaths outside hospitals in its daily statistics: deaths in care homes account for 53% of the total. Belgium’s official toll also includes people suspected of having died of coronavirus, without a confirmed diagnosis. Nearly all deaths in care homes (94%) are suspected Covid-19 cases, rather than confirmed – an approach that has led some to complain Belgium is overestimating the number of fatalities.

(They probably aren't over counting. Covid-19 is devastating for nursing homes and care homes).

This is correct. Most other countries are undercounting Covid-19 deaths significantly because they are only counting confirmed cases.

The problem becomes obvious when the total death numbers for the last few months are compared to the historical average.

See for example this NYT analysis, which shows that Belgium's numbers line up with the actual increase in death rate, not the more-or-less made up numbers from most other countries: https://www.nytimes.com./interactive/2020/04/21/world/corona...

The government actually issues the two numbers [1].

Current (Apr 26) toll is 7,094 if you include suspected deaths, but is 3,596 if you only count positive cases.

[1] https://covid-19.sciensano.be/sites/default/files/Covid19/De...

In some measure they have _less_ excess deaths than an average of the last years (after subtracting the counted Covid-19 cases), which would be an indication that they are over-counting.

Are you looking at the correct demographics? We’re seeing a pretty big drop in all cause mortality outside risk groups due to lockdowns

Actually in Italy (as well as France) deaths outside hospitals are counted.

Yes, everywhere is also counting the deaths outside hospital. But Belgium is reporting those numbers every day, while Italy and France and the UK and some other countries are not.

Understand but the quote from the article is wrong.

Edit: actually it seems in Italy is also reported every day.

Yup, serious work to put the numbers on a solid footing required in the next months and years

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