This uses data on confirmed deaths from NYC department of death in the included data.csv but you can easily switch that out to whatever region you have the data for.

Uses confirmed deaths, estimates for mortality rate and mean number of days from infection to death are used to estimate the cumulative number of deaths.

Then using the serial interval (estimated time between infections) uses the estimated number of cases to estimate the R0.

Finally, uses the most recent estimate for R0 to project forward to see how long it may take to reach a certain number of new infections.

I'm pretty sure I've messed up somewhere in my logic here because the results are really positive for NYC (too good to be true) so any feedback where might have gone wrong is appreciated!