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Comment by xiaolingxiao | Hacker News Reader

They're exploring a sale valued at $10B, but it's doubtful who would have the appetite to buy it at this valuation. Google declined a follow on round recently, Apple has been developing their own tech for years, and Facebook has quietly stepped away from AR/VR.

Magic Leap is reminiscent of another company with "Magic" in its name: General Magic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Magic). They both made a product that evangelize the form factor in the public's (or some subset of it) eye, but alas is way ahead of its time in terms of tech, and content.

It's easy to hate on Magic Leap and its self aggrandizing marketing. Although I personally never bought into the hype of Magic Leap in particular, they did inspire a whole generation of developers in a way that hasn't been done since the release of the original iPhone.

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Not sure why you are claiming that Facebook has stepped away from AR/VR. I know that Facebook is still hiring quite heavily in the Seattle area for AR/VR HW roles.

Facebook/Oculus is also heavily recruiting in Zurich.

I guess "heavy" is subjective. But they're also recruiting in LA.

My rift CV1 just got a firmware update this week.

I use my quest every day and my kids love it.

Oculus Quest has been a major hit, do you have any info on facebook walking away from VR?

I just don't think they are with the amount of work they are doing on the Oculus ecosystem atm.

Ya, I don’t think Facebook is stepping away from VR at all, or even AR for that matter. Quest has been a huge hit during quarantine, too bad they’ve been hard to get ahold of.

Every Quest was sold out during the holiday season and was being sold for double the price on eBay/Amazon during Christmas. It’s an incredible hit.

Yes, a quick survey of posts in /r/virtualreality revealed this thread [1] asking about a "missing" media blitz on the Quest.

The reaction was that the demand for the device so outpaces supply Facebook shouldn't advertise it.

But the OP points out something I hadn't though of, which is that VR represents a potential opportunity in the times of social distancing.

If Coronavirus becomes like the normal flu, where seasonal vaccines offer only partial coverage[2]--social distancing will become something people get very good at and want to maximize the bounds of experience in.

Thus, if anything Facebook would want to increase its investment and accelerate roadmaps for the technology.

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/virtualreality/comments/fqk3dd/face...

[2] This hypothesis is based on this report from late yesterday and is currently not yet getting media attention:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22941012

> VR represents a potential opportunity in the times of social distancing.

I always assumed that Facebook is playing the long game with VR, with the end goal being a re-imagined Second Life.

They need to wait until the technology is cheap/mature enough though, which is probably 5-10 years out.

5-10 years? They are selling the standalone Oculus quest for $400 right now. At least, they would be if they could keep it in stock.

Seems cheap enough for mainstream. Considering the game console price point.

I think it is a mix of things that make 5-10 years sound reasonable to me. Part of it is the equipment setup and hardware requirements make it almost a gaming hobbiest attraction still. (although I have not set up a quest or reviewed the recommend specs)

The comparison consumer-ready technology would be an iPhone or a Nintendo Switch which are sort of out-of-the-box experiences mainstream consumers are quickly getting used to.

The Oculus Quest is an out-of-the-box experience. Oculus is aiming for mainsteam market with this. Maybe you're confusing the Quest (standalone) with the Rift S (wired).

As soon as you unbox the Quest you're ready for the onboarding process (which is quite enjoyable btw). No PC or additional hardware required.

There is no equipment setup or hardware requirements. The Quest is a VR console that works out of the box. Everything works on the headset itself, so there's no need to set up the IR beacons that the other headsets require.

> If Coronavirus becomes like the normal flu, where seasonal vaccines offer only partial coverage[2]--social distancing will become something people get very good at and want to maximize the bounds of experience in.

There's no way that social distancing or shelter in place becomes a seasonal norm of any kind. Maybe some people will wear masks more often and we'll shake hands less. That's about it.

Would you please share what makes you confident to say this? The reason I ask is that the director of the CDC just said the fall will be worse than it is now. [1]

What specific medical changes will occur such that this will be "fixed" by next season?

[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/22/coro...

My point was that we're not going to be social distancing and sheltering in place year after year if the coronavirus becomes a normal seasonal thing like the flu. Maybe we'll do it in the fall, we will not be doing it every year after that. It's not going to happen.

Not sure if Facebook is stepping away from AR/VR. Oculus/ Facebook reality labs is still hiring plenty of folks in the optics/ photonics world.. even making announcements over the last week on open positions.

This is an uninformed opinion yeah. Facebook is recruiting HEAVILY and appears to have the published state-of-the-art research in the field. They also recently acquired a hot startup in the field, Scape based in London, and kickstarted Facebook Reality Labs in London which is hiring. They are also hiring in Seattle.

If someone wants to look how Microsoft is also doing from a engineering PoV, watch this cool video from Marc Pollefys from ETH Zurich/Microsoft. It was made for a technical-minded scene and shows the behind-the-scene, some potential issues (privacy) and where it is going next https://vimeo.com/380218937

Based on job postings I've seen in biomedical science-related fields, I think Facebook is pushing for AR contact lenses.

Facebook is one of the most active players in the space, Oculus Quest is the best selling VR hardware outside of PSVR and continues to sell out regularly. Facebook is also working on new VR applications and new VR hardware. Not sure where you got the impression that they've quietly stepped away when they are actively working on new products... Maybe the marketing feels reduced?

> It's easy to hate on Magic Leap and its self aggrandizing marketing

You mean the fake video demos they distributed?

> inspire a whole generation of developers in a way that hasn't been done since the release of the original iPhone.

I don't really think this is true. Most of what I've heard about magic leap from developers has been skepticism, while the hype seems to have been from VCs and journalists.

Any particular examples of the enthusiasm you've seen?

Do you have a source for Facebook stepping away from AR/VR? I hadn’t heard that.

Will be surprised to see someone would even buy them with 1B...They are basically worthless at this moment.

And what good has this inspiration brings to the economy then? It is funny to even call it an inspiration since for a very long period of time it is just rendered CG for marketing.

> They're exploring a sale valued at $10B, but it's doubtful who would have the appetite to buy it at this valuation.

One of the sentences in the article that leapt out at me from the article was "Magic Leap is one of the most well-capitalized consumer hardware startups ever, having raised more than $2.6 billion from investors":

* "most well-capitalized" sounds very awkward.

* How much they raised is hardly indicative of how well-capitalized they are at the moment (in the sense of runway), without knowing how much of it they spent already.

* The article makes it sound like huge investments are all upside. But they carry a significant downside as well, because all those investors wanting to see a return will significantly increase the price tag if the company wants to sell itself.

Neither “most well-capitalized” nor “best-capitalized” sounds particularly awkward to me. I’d probably use them interchangeably. (American English native speaker)

I feel like Google needs it most. They killed Daydream and don't have an alternative and Apple is moving towards a wearable AR device.

Edit: I'm ready for Apple to pull a rabbit out of a hat again in a year with an AR wearable- I think the iPhone SE was strategic because AR glasses and an expensive phone and a watch is a tough sell. Cheap but powerful phone in pocket and a wearable makes more sense to me.

Oculus was sold for $2B in 2014. Adjusting for S&P, I think it would have been sold for $4B today. MagicLeap has much more difficult and stronger tech so $10B seems reasonable. On back of the napkin, I would estimate ~500 people working for 4-5 years to build something like MagicLeap. So if a company wants to do this, they should be prepared to foot the bill of approximately $1B and wait for that many years.

The problem, however,is this. AR tech is simply not there yet. Glasses are becoming smaller but resolution sucks and we don't know if headaches will ever go away for more than an hour usage. I would estimate another 10 years of intense development before they are ready to compete with 6X cheaper 4K monitors in rendering quality. It's a long game and doesn't work without determined leader like Zuck willing to drain billions on it.

It’s absolutely crazy to say ML has better tech. They have more experimental technology that proves to be nothing more than a cheap gimmick, based on descriptions of everyone who managed to test it for an extensive period of time.

Rony Abovitz is closer to Adam Neumann than Steve Jobs.

They did? I'm not a developer myself so I may have missed out on this, but I never sensed any enthusiasm about the platform. ARKit certainly brought a few people into that world, but I've never felt that Magic Leap inspired anything but skepticism practically since launch.

If you look at any of Mark Zuckerberg's statements, it's clear he still believes in pushing more and more funding to AR/VR, not sure where you're getting your info.

> Facebook has quietly stepped away from AR/VR

Has Facebook de-prioritized Oculus? I haven't heard any news, but I'm also not following it closely.

Not at all. xiaolingxiao is simply wrong or didn't know Oculus is Facebook.

Facebook has not stepped away from VR. Oculus and Valve are the industry leaders right now. Please stop spreading misinformation.

> Although I personally never bought into the hype of Magic Leap in particular, they did inspire a whole generation of developers in a way that hasn't been done since the release of the original iPhone

What on Earth is this claim? What XR developer was inspired by Magic Leap in any way other than the encouragement to bilk VCs out of their money?

Not only is AR/VR not going away, but this time period is likely to be looked back at as a turning point for the technology where it began to slowly leave the "toy" stage out of necessity. Magic Leap spent too much money on tech and a market that weren't ready.

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