Neither. This is based on seeing a large number of companies, who are seamlessly capable of working and delivering products remotely (e.g. SaaS) moving to salary reductions, furloughs, and layoffs.
That's anecdotal data among companies and colleagues I interact with, but there's enough of it that it's compelling to me.
If you lived in North Korea, and in six months, you had a few friends die of COVID, while the government told you things were under control, you'd have no data or statistics, but you'd know there's something up.
That said, we do have data, but not broken out in that way. Best we have for data are unemployment claims.
And not all of the behavior is rational. Investing during downturns is much cheaper than during upturns. A year ago, top ML people cost north of a megabuck a year. Inflation reduces labor costs further. Companies who up investment now are likely to come out of the crisis stronger than ones who cut back, assuming money is available (either as loans or savings). But it seems to be a reality.