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Comment by 12elephant | Hacker News Reader

So what happens when we end quarantine in 6 months? We'll just have a COVID epidemic 6 months from now. Isolation does not stop the spead, it only slows the spread.

As soon as isolation is lifted, whether that be in a month or 10 years, the spread will resume. Unless of course either a) herd immunity is developed or b) a vaccine is developed.

We've only ever eradicated one infectious disease in all of human history (smallpox) and we had a vaccine for that. See: https://www.historyofvaccines.org/index.php/content/articles...

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This is the unfortunate truth many fail to see. At some point we will have to decide to do what we can for those at high risk, and try to go about our normal lives again. We can require masks in public, even ban truly large gatherings (hundred plus), keep the high risk isolated, but at some point, if we all stay isolated, there'll be repercussions beyond just the economy. How many new relationships have started in the last month? How will peoples mental state handle prolonged isolation?

The virus likely entered the US in early February, and in 2 months shut down the country. Literally one case will lead to another outbreak, we've already seen it happen.

Well, no, if you have enough isolation then the virus runs out of hosts. It goes extinct unless it can survive latently or in some other host species. If we are getting infected by bats consistently then we are in trouble.

That's wishful thinking. The virus will survive in Africa, or India, or many of the other places that are incapable or unwilling to enforcing a complete lockdown (many of these places are in the US itself).

As I mentioned above, we have only ever erradicated _one_ infectious disease in all of human history. The chances of COVID, with its highly infectious nature, being the second are quite slim.

Just like the first outbreak, all it takes is one person with the virus to start the whole process over again.

Yeah, it goes along with strong border control.

All international travel is going to be restricted for a very long time regardless of antibody and PCR tests.

This all started with one person, November 17th 2019. By mid March 2020 the world was shut down. So we literally have to be sure there are 0 cases in a country before it can unlock again. And before international travel can really begin again we need to be sure there are 0 cases in the world.

None of that really seems doable for all but the smallest countries. So the answer is herd immunity, either through contracting the virus, or via a vaccine.

I'd appreciate if you can provide more info or a link for the Nov. 17 date. My links only go back to Dec. 1 so far. Thanks!

This is the best source I found. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coro...

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