[1] https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/Think-you-got-the...
[2] Analysis of #infected today from #dead today, using following assumptions:
1. death statistics are reliable, since cause of death tests can adequately collect fluid samples (a major source of inaccuracy in COVID-19 testing), source = talking to medical staff at Bay Area sites.
2. E[days between first infection and death] = 14 (lost the source at the moment), Therefore, number of dead today D => number of infected 14 days ago = 100 D
3. rate of death increase consistently trends around 25%/day or 15% with full lockdown, source CDC situation reports worldwide excluding regions with restricted access to journalists
4. therefore, #infected today = #infected 14 days ago growing at 25% daily = 22X, or 7X if your region was locked down for last 2 weeks
5. so #infected=2200D or 700D
[3] Last week, CDC reported 2 deaths today for Iceland, and admittedly-non-random sampling by DeCode indicated upto 1% of population have/had virus, upto 3600. Iceland has done strict quarantining of confirmed and suspected cases, and extensive testing since February, so despite no lockdown, I would put them at the 700X end of the estimate. They report ~1000 confirmed cases, so they would actually estimate 3600-1000 infected so far. My estimate would have indicated 2200-700 X D (= today's deaths, 2) = 4400 to 1400 cases.