If we assume a sharp downturn in Q1 and Q2 of 2020 and a subsequent uptick and prolonged recovery in the second half of 2020 and continuing in 2021 that pretty much corresponds to how stock markets have been reacting over the past few weeks.
"Whatever it takes" to backstop the stock market is apparently working.
Make no mistake, there will be huge shifts and upheavals, regarding the ways we work and buy stuff for example.
Many of today’s incumbents might not exist anymore in two years’ time but there’ll be others to take their place.
Many of today's incumbents WILL exist in two years' time, because they are the recipients of "helicopter money" to prop them up, even if they deserve to die.
The real losers will be small and medium businesses who will get some token (not enough to survive) help, so that politicians can claim that everyone was helped.