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Comment by lonelappde | Hacker News Reader

41 dead out of 3 million.

Odds aren't so bad yet.

On its face, this is probably true. But when the process is showing exponential growth, and quality data (i.e., deaths) is lagging by weeks, it's not unreasonable to be very conservative in one's risk estimate.

Once the exponential phase has clearly passed, I'm guessing we'll start treating this more like traffic fatalities. As in, Yeah, tens of thousands die each year, and we could easily cut this in half, but why bother?

A person's tolerance for odds of dying is understandably relative to context. A grocery store worker would be rightfully unhappy about increased odds of dying, even if their odds of dying remain very low absolutely speaking.

I feel like knowledgeable people have always encouraged the general public to understand statistics and realize that, as dangerous as some things might seem, the risk from them is very low, i.e. “Don’t be afraid to do common activity X, because many more people perish in a year from heavy things falling on them at home, or in car crashes” etc. But now with the virus that calm and sober thinking is all going out the window and some are suggesting that it is fine for the public to fret and panic.

A person's tolerance for dying mostly seems to be relative to how attention-grabbing the cause of death is and how much attention the press gives it. I do have to wonder if some of these groups of workers are actually any more at risk from this than they would be from the flu during a typical winter, given how heavily concentrated Covid-19 deaths are in the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. These jobs are more exposed to the flu for exactly the same reasons as they are to Covid-19, but we don't keep a count of how many grocery workers die of ther flu each year, or how many nurses and other medical staff, because it's just the flu, and there certainly aren't headlines keeping us up to date on the tally.

How many of those 3 million have gotten brutally ill and had to spend many days suffering at home or hooked up to a ventilator, wondering if they would survive the week? Probably a lot more than 41 people.

How many more people are going to get very sick in the upcoming weeks and months? Probably a lot more.

Dismissing the workers' concerns with misleading statistics like you have done here is irresponsible at best.

emphasis on "at least", do you honestly think there is solid public data of the exact occupational breakdown of all 22K people who have died in the US so far?

Will the CDC will eventually have that data? They're using death certificates, and I think those should include occupation. (Although I don't know how this works in the US).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

> Future updates to this release may include additional detail such as demographic characteristics, additional causes of death (e.g., acute respiratory distress syndrome or other comorbidities), or estimates based on models that account for reporting delays to generate more accurate predicted provisional counts.

Guide to death certificates for covid-19: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

The vast majority of those 3 million don't have health insurance and would be completely destroyed financially with a hospital stay.

Citation? Every major grocery store chain I am aware provides health insurance to their full time employees, and many like Publix and Lidl also provide to part time workers. I know many part time workers aren't getting health insurance, but they aren't a vast majority of grocery store employees.

Maybe in the northeast or west that's the case. I worked for a major grocery store chain for 7 years, and in a store of over 80 employees there were maybe 20 full timers, including management. When you're making 12 bucks an hour, going halfsies on a $600 a month medical plan with a $5000 deductible doesn't make any sense.

Uninsured folks treated for covid-19 will be covered according to one of the recent briefings. There is also an enrollment period triggered for those who lose their jobs

Having watched people deal with government benefits at all levels, I am not surprised that they don't trust that they will be covered. Even still, since when is potentially dying of an illness an intelligent trade off for a minimum wage job?

Agree with your last bit, maybe better to go on unemployment depending on one's risk profile, health, and family status

Do you work at a grocery store or other retail establishment dealing with the public every day? I'm no statistician but I suspect your take on the odds is pretty meaningless. It's probably riskier to be bagging groceries in Jersey City, NJ than in some other places.

What? So only people who bag groceries are allowed to double-check the math?

EDIT: I can't reply to the post below because HN has told me I'm posting too much (last post was 12 minutes ago?) so rather than leave the point up without the ability to defend it I'll just remove.

How is you calling that guys numerical point worthless any different than if you said "Those grocery store workers aren't professionals, they don't know the odds, their opinion is meaningless" ?

Those are incredibly optimistic numbers.

Remember, western countries are not testing sufficiently. Deaths are up by the thousands all over the place but they're not being recorded as COVID-19 cases because there was no testing.

Over 1 million people died in road incidents worldwide

Every time you commute, you are playing Russian roulette

Considering the callousness of the average consumer, a pandemic would be the bale that breaks the camel's back. It's hard enough to deal with them already. Knowing how filthy the average human is even before the pandemic, the idea that they can now give me a lethal disease would be the dealbreaker.

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