Why / how will the virus peak soon?
Global population is ~7.8 billion and yet presumably only 10-100s of millions have caught it so far.
Global population is ~7.8 billion and yet presumably only 10-100s of millions have caught it so far.
Social distancing is slowing that down a bit, but I suspect in the coming week or two we'll learn it's been spreading like wildfire in places like Florida and Alabama where they've been slow to clamp down on social activity.
Exponential growth can be hard to wrap heads around. That said, I think "peak" is a misnomer. We'll have a bunch of peaks.
Plus now we'll have a bunch of companies on the dole who otherwise wouldn't be in business/re-open and it will become even more surreal when the market can't sort out which companies are existing naturally and which ones are fully propped up (esp. if there is no oversight = impossible to track).
When the contagion is out in 0.1%, and we reopen everything, suddenly 50% of people will have it in a month and that will be unlike anything we've seen yet.