Edit: Listen to the person replying to me. It is not 20%, but 3.3%. I am off by an order of magnitude.
.66% CFR, with 3.3% hospitalized (and fewer ICU) under age of 40. Even in the >80 age range, hospitalization is < 20%.
If you're going to make a point, make the point with accurate numbers -- those are off by an order of magnitude.
This changes nothing.
It literally changes everything, as you're spreading false information. Instead of 20%, it's 3.3% - that doesn't change anything? It's the difference of tens of millions of lives just in the United States!
Yes, 3.3% is still high, but it's not even in the same ballpark as 20%. And not everyone will be hospitalized at once, which is the entire point of flattening the curve.
I’ve already edited my comment to concede on 20%. Why get so combative in responding? I’m not trying to spread false information and willing to concede when new factual information is reported. Jeez.
Because you were arguing tens of millions of deaths "changes nothing."
That's not to say that a few young people with no health issues might be harmed. There will be some, but from what I've see thus far, all other potential causes of death in the next year from things like cars accidents are more likely than dying of COVID19 in the next year for those young people with no co-morbidities.
Just saying young people in general have a CFR of 3% isn't helpful.
> Across the city, hospitals are overrun. Patients have died in hallways before they could even be hooked up to one of the few available ventilators in New York. Doctors and nurses, who have had to use the same protective gear again and again, are getting sick. So many people are dying that the city is running low on body bags.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-u...
I'm not sure what you mean by "over capacity", either. If you're talking beds, ICU slots, and ventilators, maybe not yet. If you're talking lack of staffing, lack of PPE availability, general workload, then I think many are straining or over capacity now.
It's also impossible to know if we if we have peaked or not. It's just like trying to time the stock market. The only thing that really matters is the death rate. The rate of cases doesn't matter and is likely under counted. We are testing more and more people which increases the case rate. If we tested everyone including those with no cases and found a lot more people than expected have the virus the death percentage would go down.
I am also skeptical of how the start of the spread in the US was determined. It's possible it was much earlier and early cases were confused with Flu and we are in fact near the peak of the death rate.
Give it another two weeks. Thank god people with foresight and basic math skills are the ones planning for increased hospital capacity.
BTW God should be capitalized it's a proper noun.