Despite all the rhetoric, no country manufactures like the USA, and the USA was said to have been in 'manufacturing recessing' well before The Current Mess started. Now the price of oil has tanked (ha ha), real estate markets are beginning to groan as open houses are empty and purchase-money mortgages are down 24% from year-ago quarter, and of course an enormous percentage of Americans are unemployed, lacking both work and healthcare. Yes, yes there already is a sudden and deep recession, the scale of which seems likely to exceed 2008 in both speed of onset and depth of bottom.

I don't see government responses as being much different from 2008, ie bail out the large institutions and markets and leave average people in debt, and solutions like that tend to make for very gradual recoveries, barring a sudden attack of common sense, the window for which is already closing. I would therefore submit that we may expect the economic climate to take a year or more before government officials are able to lie believably about seeing promise on the horizon.