Don't assume the data going into this model has anything to do with reality. There's a very, very good reason that the China data almost perfectly fits a curve. That's because they used a quadratic equation to generate the data.

The lines of hundreds/thousands of people waiting to recover the ashes of relatives from several cremation facilities, along with the documented arrival of roughly 45,000 urns to Wuhan alone belies the rotten data that even now claims only 3,300 total deaths in .cn