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Comment by en4bz | Hacker News Reader

This doesn't really track with Agricultural futures. They are all down in the last few months [1]. Either this is bait for retail investors or the pros are asleep at the wheel.

[1] https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/

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The bulk commodities which have futures markets will likely be fine. Grains are mechanically harvested, so they don't need much in the way of labour. Meat might be a little more in short supply, but not due to labour shortages so much as problems in China. The problems are with fresh food like fruit and vegetables that aren't well suited to futures trading.

Historically problems in fresh veg supply has translated into higher prices for both meat and grains as consumers switch their preferences.

The futures markets for grains and meats are both running lower right now. The pros think that demand is going down due to economic activity and the supply chain issues aren’t going to make a dent in that.

I have no position but the reading of the markets is that no one is worried about food yet.

> The pros think that demand is going down due to economic activity

Does that make any sense? Do people eat fewer grains when economic activity goes down?

People aren't the only consumer of grains. You have biofuels, as well as livestock feed. Biofuels are likely having a bad time with the breakdown in OPEC. With livestock, people might eat a bit less meat, but I donno if that's really gonna move much. But directly to your point, grain alcohol products might drop a smidge with restaurants out of commission for months. Even if people only drink marginally less, they'll be paying way less for it and I imagine some of that margin cut trickles down the supply chain.

More darkly, there may be 1 percent fewer people around to eat bread, steak and drink vodka.

Meat takes a huge hit in economic downturns. Meat is what eats the grains sold in futures markets.

> This doesn't really track with Agricultural futures.

Excuse me but "Orange juice futures are the best performing asset so far this year" [1]

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52030133 [3 days ago]

The obvious case of the epidemic in China progressing into a global pandemic wasn't clear to traders back in early February. I'm not sure the market is a beacon more than it is a barometer.

If you really believe that, then you have an opportunity to make a ton of money.

I did make money from the crash but this shortages stuff isn't as obvious as the pandemic was.

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