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Look at the 'worldometers' that someone else posted. You will see sloping lines there. You can judge for yourself when it has actually hit.

Because of a lack of ICU facilities, governments are hoping to push the critical point out as far as possible.

except virus != ill != death

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/us-coronavirus-cases-top-100...

Someone made a comparison of the number of deaths in one of severly affected Italian cities over the past couple of weeks vs an equivalent period there in 2019. The death count was something like 78 vs 18.