Not saying that you are wrong but, what makes you so confident? Italy has been almost approaching 1,000 deaths a day for a few days now, and yet their stock market has been rising ~12% since March 20th, after dropping 40% since February. Why wouldn't their market drop more since they have so many deaths with no sign of stopping?

I am fully expecting the stock market to drop more as we move forward, but it's much less clear to me how one specific event (like the one you or gp are mentioning) could have a direct impact on tomorrow's prices.

In 2009 the market started recovering way before the real damages to the economy started disappearing (e.g. unemployment rate actually went back to ~5% just in 2015, and by that point the stock market was in full rebound for years).