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Comment by nixpulvis | Hacker News Reader

I heard Trump and his lackeys were talking about dates as early as a few weeks from now. Meanwhile healthcare officials are all claiming many months, upwards of longer than a year.

It's not easy, but we must listen to the experts.

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This isn't just about listening to the experts. Ultimately, we need to make a value judgment between saving lives now vs saving the economy. There's no clear answer when a stronger economy saves future lives.

Which experts exactly?

Dr. Fauci, for instance. He hasn't wavered on the need for social distancing.

I suspect he's better at economics than an entrepreneur with multiple failed businesses and four bankruptcies.

I'm seeing lots of experts talking about the potential deaths if we don't shut down.

I'm not seeing a lot of experts giving estimates of the ramifications of economic fallout here. Just politicians worried about their reelection and business people worried about their personal fortune.

I'm sure they are out there. But right now they are overshadowed by professional doofs like Larry Ludlow.

Are you seeing experts estimating the number of deaths caused by the economic damage? Because the rate of suicide does tick up when there's economic downturn. I would not be surprised if, at the tail end of this, the downturn causes more deaths in the sub-50 y.o. group due to suicide than due to the virus.

Besides, are experts estimating whether or not it will be easier to deal with the epidemic with an economy that functions or the one that's almost totally shut down, causing supply chain disruption and delays worldwide, and (in a month or two) shortages of goods?

> I heard Trump and his lackeys were talking about dates as early as a few weeks from now

On Fox News, he said "by Easter" (2 1/2 weeks from now)

What you're seeing in his messaging now is called "anchoring". It's a common negotiating tactic, literally the oldest trick in the book, which he uses literally in every single case, nearly always successfully. It baffles me that he's been using it for years and people still don't recognize it and think he's just doing this at random.

We know the US is a big country, and not all of it is affected equally. Epidemiologically it'll likely behave like 50 smaller countries. We also know that if Trump tried to re-open just those parts of the country where per capita infection rates are very low, public would howl.

So what he's doing is proposing a big, unacceptable offer, to then tone it down shortly before the final decision is announced. That way you will all exhale and accept it more easily. So if NY gets much worse, it'll stay shut down. If it levels out, it'll be partially re-opened. If a miracle happens and clinical trials currently underway show efficacy in some drugs, things will be able to be re-opened much further. WA has already leveled off. CA is leveling off as we speak. In other places there's not enough testing to make any conclusions, something that will change this week.

You will see this play out exactly as I described it over the next 2 weeks. Bet on it.

I apologize for the overtly political comment, as I don't like going there, but this is about Trump's reelection. The economy was going to be the linchpin of his narrative.

We can't afford to shutdown the economy for a year.

It likely won't be. But it'll take a few months for it either to be back to business as usual, or a few months for the economy to adjust to the new reality of takeout and greater ecommerce focus.

You don't. But because the US has no real social safetynet and is reticent to expand unemployment benefits you end up with these kooky binary choices.

This implies a false binary between shutting down the economy and millions of deaths by not isolating.

Look at other countries like Germany, Denmark, and Ireland who are moving to cover wages and providing paid sick leave. Germany is offering companies unlimited loans to prevent them from collapsing.

I am not an expert in economics, but it does seem like competent technocrats are finding paths to maintain the economy while maintaining public health, and it's only in the US where you have a president who doesn't have a strong grasp of economics, or the experts to advise him, who only sees an option of trying to force back the old system, despite all the experts (economic and health!) who are advising the exact opposite.

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