Hacker News Reader

Comment by point78 | Hacker News Reader

Probably the only time it's appropriate for outrage culture and to focus on the negative is exactly right now.

Shame and tell everyone whenever possible to stay the fuck inside because those are going to be the people that make you stay in lockdown for 6 months instead of 2.

Otherwise this will be 10x worse in the US

View on HN

It appears Seattle may have "flattened the curve" too much as new cases have flatlined.

Sounds good!? But healthy young people aren't building up antibodies.

Which means when we end social distancing, the virus will start spreading just like it did before.

The goal here isn't to prevent everyone from getting it. The goal is to slowly build up heard immunity, in a way that doesn't overly burden the healthcare system, and to hopefully learn some new treatments along the way.

https://depts.washington.edu/uwviro/

I am not so sure herd immunity is a goal. The idea is indeed to avoid overrunning the healthcare system, with an expectation that we can get the majority of the population successfully through the system. It's not well-known that we'll build even short term immunity, let alone long to medium term immunity.

If new cases flatline, that's good! If we can avoid everyone getting it, that's even better! If the globe can get a handle on things, we don't need to solely consider worst-case scenarios.

Building up herd immunity without overwhelming the hospital system would take years. Instead we need to prevent spread as much as possible while testing is ramped up. Once we have free, fast, widespread testing, we can remove restrictions without risking new outbreaks, because new cases will be caught quickly.

It is likely possible to engineer a vaccine for this virus. If we can social distance long enough to get that out, people's lives are saved.

No, it won't. If people mingle and fail to "flatten the curve", the whole mess will be over sooner, albeit with more dead old people. If you believe you can starve the virus of hosts, you're delusional.

What about China and South Korea? It's possible, but people do need to be more responsible

I think it is dangerously premature to call anything in China or Korea "over".

Definitely, no one is calling the situation over, but it is wildly different from Europe

They are both still under lockdown.

Old people are not the only ones dying.

Data from an Italian study:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...

Median age is 80.5. That's actually near the life expectancy of an Italian male.

99% of fatalities were among people with a prior illness.

About half of the deaths were people suffering from three or more other illnesses.

To put it very bluntly, a lot of the folks dying from COVID-19 were already dying. COVID-19 is the straw that broke the camel's back.

You might be deadly wrong.

About half of those infected in New York City are under 50

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/nyregion/coronavirus-new-...

...preliminary figures released on Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that adults ages 20 to 44 represent nearly one-third of U.S. coronavirus patients whose ages are known.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-millen...

Anyone can get infected of course. Does that surprise you? The study was regarding fatalities.

In any case, it's not me who you're calling "deadly" wrong, it's the Italian Ministry of Health.

CDC published numbers on Wednesday night that 40% of hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the US are adults younger than the age of 54.

Sure they're not fatalities, but do you really want to go to an overcrowded hospital for COVID-19? (Will be worse when ventilators run out and hospitalization can't help you nearly as much)

Only 2.8% of all hospitalizations that required an ICU were people under 45 years old, though, and we have no idea what underlying health problems they may have had.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

The second link summarizes how unhealthy are millenials. What will happen when ICU capacity is not enough? There was another study suggesting that being exposed to the virus fast vs slow makes the difference, can't find it now. Crowded hospitals with millenials will surely make a difference for all.

Does that take into account people dying of other treatable causes because they couldn't get care because of the surge of COVID-19 cases?

The more interesting question is how many of those non-fatlities only survived thanks to access to intensive care and ventilation?

Maybe it’s almost entirely elderly people because doctors making triage decisions favor the young?

As an "old people", I thank you for your consideration and concern.

You're welcome.

If you live, remember to vote progressively on housing and other things that your generation has a death grip on.

If you pass, my condolences: It wasn't personal, merely generational.

With some remaining respect,

Young People

Reply on news.ycombinator.com