It seems highly likely that the US is headed where the whole of Europe is now: over 100,000 positives, over 5,000 deaths. We waited too long for actions like this. It will take a month before we see a drop in cases and deaths
From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.h... :
A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection.
From https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19#Inkubationszeit :
...the incubation period can be up to 14 days. In addition, there are reports from Chinese researchers that extend the possible incubation period up to 24 days. An analysis of the first 425 cases reported in Wuhan shows an incubation period of 5.2 days on average and an average age of 59 years. ... A statistical analysis of several reports of infections in a household or in another narrow spatial limitation (so-called clusters) shows an incubation period of 5–6 days on average.
Anyway, as long as people don't keep distance between each other, the situation won't improve. Here in Switzerland the limit was shurunk within ~2 weeks from groups of people of max 1000 to 500 to 100 to 10 to 5 (today's new guidelines) => so far nothing improved.
The company I'm working for reacted early => many employees started staying at home (and working remotely) already 3 weeks ago, like myself => at the beginning it was ok for me, but now it's getting psychologically a bit "heavy". Luckily the government so far did not implement a total curfew, so from time to time we can still walk a bit in the parks/forests (but alone).
Day 0: Infection
Day 5: First Symptoms
Day 11: Hospital admission/shortness of breath/oxygen
Day 14: Ventilator
Day 21: Death
If there's no ventilator on day 14, the process is tragically accelerated.
I find that in the US, we have an understandable but sometimes costly attachment to 'treat at all costs'.
I lost a family member to cancer last year - and was pushed by providers to pursue treatment that would have bankrupted me and my family, while adding (maybe) a few months of (low quality) life to someone already in pain and confined to a hospital bed.
I was made to feel callous about balancing the collective 80+ years of my family's life going forward, against the 80 days or less of an elderly relative.
If we can't break out of that mindset, then the coming coronavirus storm is going to provide some very painful choices on us, as it already has in other countries such as Italy.
("Morti giornalieri = daily deaths | "Terapia intensiva" = total amount of people in intensive care on that day)
As people who need a ventilator are in intensive care (but I admit that that includes as well people that have other types of complications who might not need/be using a ventilator), an idea of that can maybe be extrapolated by comparing that number vs. the number of deaths (daily? total?)?
Thinking more about it, another complication with these numbers is that there are probably already now not enough ventilators, therefore the deaths might include people that died because of the lack of a ventilator... .
1. X incubates for a week
2. X gets symptoms and infects spouse
3. X's spouse incubates for a week
4. X's spouse worsens for a few weeks
5. X's spouse dies
Plus, there will be a lag between the moment the order is issued and the moment you see material changes in patterns of social interaction.
It's definitely not 1 week, and even 2 seems a little sunny side up.
I'm not saying I'm denying COVID or that the deaths are not horrible, just that for some unknown reason airplane crashes still seem so much more horrible: I'm talking about feelings, not facts. I don't know.
OTOH, thinking about the economic implications of this crisis prevents me from sleeping.
In all seriousness the math around the trade-offs inherent in all these discussions seems oddly absent. About three million people die every year in the U.S., many of those deaths preventable with far less drastic measures than we are taking here, and it doesn't seem like we're having anything like the same discussion about priorities with this specific situation.
I'm not saying the answer would necessarily come out any different, but it's strange we're not really asking the questions.
It's one of the glorious fudges that we all collectively engage in.
Hilarious, in a sad and dark way.
Plus whatever amount of people would die from not having access to healthcare?
And the innumerable numbers with long term reduced lung function.
And the fact the rest of the world would shut us off from everything regardless since we’d be this gigantic disaster zone.
I think, and don’t quote me on this, that the UKs original plan was “fuck it, lets aim for herd immunity”. I don’t think it took long for them to realize how terrible of an idea that was.
And lets not forget the incredible numbers of younger Americans with underlying health issues who’d die off in droves.
So I guess, is it _really_ that strange we’re not asking “what if just said fuck it”?
Edit: sorry if that came off rude, I suspect if you did ask that question, something akin to the above is the answer you’d get :-)
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/corona...