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this is much riskier than just holding. stock prices are about expectations, not necessarily reality. for all we know, everything might spike back up to January 2020 prices the second there's an inflection point in the new infection rate, and you could miss your chance to buy back in.

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No. Being in cash is always less risky than being in the market. "Missing a chance" is not what "risky" means.

obvious, bordering on pedantic, point. OP is saying that trying to time the gap up is less likely to pay off P/L-wise than just holding the course

Not in this thread it is not. Stock market threads on Hacker News are about the same level as your doctor uncle trying to explain monads to your artist sister, I'm sorry to say. Words have specific meanings, and this just serves to confuse your average Robinhood or E-trade investor.

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