The strategy of UK seems valid as long as you protect the more vulnerable, which they don't do.
What is the strategy after a lock down? You go back to work? It needs only one person infected to get the virus propagating again...
The UK and devolved governments signaled on Thursday that the plan is for the vulnerable to be self-isolating for a long period; and based on the briefings to UK jornos on twitter - it'll be 16 weeks of self isolation for over 70s and those with underlying health conditions (they've not said what conditions yet) - I've seen it referred to as 'cocooning' by some.
I think the UK was doing a really good job, and has been doing a good job with this - I do think they've really misspoken when they've talked about herd immunity and have been trying to walk the term back.
You've got to bare in mind, that they aren't doing the politically easy things here. It would be easy to close the schools. Based on people I've spoken to, its going to happen soon - but I suspect they want this to happen after the over 70s and the vulnerables are into self-isolationg, and not shouldering childcare responsibilities. None of this is easy, we can't magic this virus away.
The schools issue is very tricky as a lot of NHS staff will not be able to work if their children need to stay home. I can see them going to a softly, softly approach - parents working from home will be able to keep kids out of school with no consequence and they will probably extend all the school holidays a bit as well.
I can't believe this government wants to kill off the elderly out of choice, it forms a good section of their voter base, if nothing else.
I think overall it's good long term strategy, though very risky, which is never going to be perfect, but seems to have a lot of science and rationale behind it, even if not obvious at first.
I had no choice but go out and to do my weekly food shopping yesterday. This was definitely not what I experienced at all. Families crowding out in the supermarket with small children and grandparents abound. People coughing openly, not maintaining distance and so on.
People still have no sense of urgency to change their behaviour, and this is the critical time that we need to mobilise. Any success would be down to pure luck rather than their strategy.
You will invariably have people breaking quarantine after a few weeks, especially if there is a sense of the threat subsiding.
I’m guessing that when things start getting Wuhan level crazy people will isolate anyway and they’ll get the worst of all results.
I despise the current government, and have no idea if this plan is better than alternatives, but please if you want to criticise it, do so for what it actually is, not a straw man of your own construction.
The actual plan and how to isolate the almost 20% of the population at high risk is not outlined here or anywhere I've seen. If you know (or anyone in the government knows) what it is, please provide a description or link. I've only seen hope... and undefined "measures".
The idea that a "second wave" can even be avoided or that infection prevents reinfection is not known. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidem...
The U.K.’s Coronavirus ‘Herd Immunity’ Debacle. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavir...