Hacker News Reader

Comment by fab1an | Hacker News Reader

Italy got caught by surprise - they only found out that they had cases when a 38 year old (!) walked into an ER with advanced symptoms. Given that this age bracket is not commonly affected by these harsher symptoms it is clear that they had long ongoing community transmission which has now culminated in the current catastrophe.

Germany is doing a bit better in this respect, it took them 1000 cases to 'get' the first death, showing that they have caught it very very early, due to their decentralized testiing system. That said, NPI must be ramped up significantly...

The US is maybe the most troublesome target for this virus in the developed world. A healthcare system that works well for few rich cancer patients is the opposite of what you want for a disease like COVID19.

View on HN

It could also be cultural. Statements from Italian doctors I've seen said that their patients usually don't go to the hospital unless they really need care. That could've been the same here, people trying to sit it out until they needed intense care. In Germany, even people with very mild symptoms got tested early which helped to track down infections more easily. That also explains the low mortality rate.

> showing that they have caught it very very early, due to their decentralized testiing system

This is why I'm terrified of people that want to centralize things even more in the federal government.

Centralization produces systems that are not anti-fragile.

Germany is counting deaths differently. If you have heart issues and you die due to a heart attack you're not counted as a COVID death. In Italy you are as long as you test positive.

> If you have heart issues and you die due to a heart attack you're not counted as a COVID death

That doesn't seem to be the case - a man from Baden-Württemberg, who died earlier this month, was only tested positive AFTER he was already dead for a few days and counted towards the statistic.

This means your general statement cannot be true.

Sorry, but this is bogus.

EDIT: I do not mean to imply that Italy failed in any respect. Italy has one of the best HC systems in the world.

The only reason this testing aspect worked out well for Germany is a very localized testing system. This type of 'federalism' is now a big issue though, as the gov can't simply ban events - only the states and communes can.

That might actually be more representative, as it indicates how many people without specific co-morbidities die.

No it isn't.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com