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Comment by sneak | Hacker News Reader

I am slowly coming to the realization that a quarter to a half of a percent of people who are alive on Earth today may not be in one year.

Please send the following links to your employers, especially if you work with the public:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronaviru...

The only way we will avoid swamping the healthcare system in the US is by enacting widespread measures before it seems necessary/imminent. NOW is the time to act, not later.

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> I am slowly coming to the realization that a quarter to a half of a percent of people who are alive on Earth today may not be in one year.

More than that percentage of the world's population die every year regardless (about 0.8% each year it seems like[1]).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate

Of course I meant in addition to those. My estimate is also conservative, because I believe there will be a vaccine before the year is out. Without one, we could see as high as 1.5-2%.

It isn't really additive though, since those that die from the virus are generally more likely to die of the flu and many other age-related diseases.

COVID-19 accelerates mortality rates and certainly is additive in low risk groups. It's disingenuous to normalize risk as "non-additive" to fit your narrative.

Given life expectancies, this is true every year. For people under age 50 the stats look much better; for people over 80 yearly death rates are already in the double digits. Whether coronavirus deaths are additive for the 80+ crowd is yet to be seen.

Ultimately no death rates are additive. There’s a death for every birth, sooner or later.

It's gonna be bad. It's gonna be /really/ bad in the US I fear. Not even sure we have the social cohesion or political will to do what we will need to do (furlough workers with pay, free childcare for quarantine, weeks spent mostly at home, etc) when we realize it. May just let it burn through population and keep people working. Gonna be ugly.

I am especially worried about people in US prisons or detention centers, where density is high, sanitation is low, and medical treatment woefully substandard.

Tens of thousands of prisoners may well die in the next 60-90 days if this spreads as much as it seems it’s going to.

I'm more concerned with mass prison riots and escapees. Couple prison riots have been reported abroad.

Then again, though we have one of the highest per capital prison rates in the world, most are non violent drug offenders so there may not be much to worry about.

> free childcare for quarantine

?? Who is going to be doing the childcare?

This sort of doomsday nonsense is ridiculous. We went through the exact same “panic” every election year for the past 15 years. H1N1, SARS, MERS, Ebola. If you are old or immunocompromised, take precautions, but this thread is starting to sound like some prepper hysteria.

And before that the Spanish flu, the flu of 1918, the bubonic plague, smallpox, measels...

This has already infected 10x more people than SARS and is spreading uncontrolled in many countries.

A bold prediction, given that around 2% of people die every year.

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