The risk of getting COVID-19 in the U.S. is currently low.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/share-facts....
Also, expect positive cases to explode in number over the next two weeks as testing capacity comes on line and massive number of tests are administered.
That fact chart seems to be out of date:
The risk of getting COVID-19 in the U.S. is currently low
Some people who have traveled to places where many people have gotten sick with COVID-19 may be monitored by health officials to protect their health and the health of other people in the community.
Community spread has now been confirmed in a number of places across the USA.
That doesn't mean anyone needs to panic, but continue taking reasonable precautions and if companies can let their workers work from home without excessive impact, it seems that doing so is a reasonable precaution.
>Community spread has now been confirmed in a number of places across the USA.
Yes, but the risk of getting the virus in the US is still low because there are perhaps thousands infected and 340 million people in the country.
So far, not too bad, right? I only have a 1/1000 chance of running across one of those people.
But, I take the bus to work, which holds around 50 people, and any of those people could be harboring the virus (possibly completely symptom free), so my chance of just being exposed to it on the bus is 1/20.
That ignores the chance of being exposed from the ~100 people on my office floor, or the ~200 or so people in the office cafeteria, etc. Though the bus is the most likely avenue of exposure -- I trust my coworker to stay home when they feel ill, but not everyone that rides the bus has the luxury to take sick leave when they need it (or even to visit the doctor when they are ill)
Granted, just being exposed is no guarantee that I'll contract the disease and I don't know what that chance is, but my risk of exposure is not exactly low.
I do wash my hands and try to avoid touching my face, etc, but none of that matters if the guy standing in the bus in front of me sneezes without properly covering his mouth and I inhale his viral mist.
The people who do know, the CDC aren't recommending you stay home.
Finally they gave states permission to use their own kits so now we should get some real figures for infection rates.
The same agency that tells me that all I need to do to remain safe is to wash my hands frequently, while they also say that will only reduce my risk of infection by 16 - 21%.
https://www.cdc.gov/handwashing/why-handwashing.htm
Oh, and the CDC was effectively silenced by the White House, so now all communications will be tainted by politics.
So, I'm not putting too much credence in the CDC right now, other than to assume that if they say to do something, then it should be taken seriously.
So meanwhile, I'm continuing to go to work, and washing/sanitizing my hands frequently but all things considered, I'd rather stay home until the full scope of the outbreak is known. It seems that some mild over-reaction is better than under-reaction, at least until we have a good sense for how many people are infected, how quickly it's spreading, and what the USA mortality rate is (which may differ than other countries due to different standards of health care)
Then who is your goto source?
Remember that public health policy is not about keeping you healthy, it's about keeping the general population healthy even if it puts some people at a higher risk, so you've literally got to take your own health and safety into your own hands. It's arguably good for public health to keep people going to their jobs, keeping shops and grocery stores open, keeping gas stations open, etc. But that grocery store cashier is exposing himself to hundreds of people every day, so he may be putting himself at risk even as he helps reduce the impact to others by helping them to buy food.
And now we're in an even worse situation where public health has been politicized in order to protect the current administration, so keeping people healthy may be sacrificed to keep the stock market healthy.
That doesn't mean people should abandon society and run for the hills, but when you see deaths and signs of community spread near you and it's clear that there's not enough testing to determine the scope of the illness, it's probably best to avoid large social gatherings, maybe skip going to the movie theater for a while. And if your company allows it, stop going to the office and work from home.
I really don't think the CDC's agenda includes sacrificing individuals for the greater good. But a variety of opinions is what makes life interesting!
If you read ahead on the CDC summary page (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html), you can see that they say that "It’s likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur."
1. Like that there are only 15 infected people and that number will only go down.
NPR made the case that Hong Kong sacrificed too much for containment, but the underlying message is that their containment is working.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/01/8103920...
Edit: HK center for health protection https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html
Hope the news of reinfection complications is wrong.
Going on a trip to somewhere, screening for Corvid-19.. "don't worry, i had it and survived". Quarantine a hotel/cruise ship/whatever - "yeah, have fun, i'm out of here".
This whole thing is (probably) blown out of proportions. Most of the known cases only present mild symptoms, and many are even asymptomatic, and you have to add to that the probably 10x cases that are never reported because in the northen hemisphere it is flu season and common cold season, and everybody is experiencing symptoms that could be Corvid-19, or just a regular common cold.
Even if the fatality rate is 2%, that means the estimated number of infections in Washington is 100+. For every person who dies you can figure 50-200 infections.
With the flu, we model and estimate infections. With the coronavirus we seem to only be counting confirmed infections. This change in methodology will make the total infections look smaller and the fatality rate (possibly) arbitrarily higher as a result.
Anyway, hope the news of reinfection complications is premature and incorrect
I want to avoid it completely until a vaccine is ready. Just like I want to avoid the flu.