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Comment by nostromo | Hacker News Reader

I'm not seeing smoke.

I see a low mortality rate for healthy people.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

I see stories about how the virus is circulating because most people have no symptoms, and don't even go to the hospital.

https://www.thelocal.it/20200228/coronavirus-may-have-circul...

The only firsthand account I've read makes it sound like a cold. "If I were at home with similar symptoms, I probably would have gone to work as usual."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466...

Yes, wash your hands. Yes, don't go to work with a cold. Yes, older and sick people may want to self-quarantine. Sure, buy some extra food. No, don't spread panic.

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I think what you are missing here is stated far better than I could by the following, which I urge you to read, and which I will submit tomorrow when it has a better chance of being seen: https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-...

I'm seeing smoke in the suppositions you're making so I'd like to help you.

The point estimates for mortality rate, R0 and the like all are subject to interpretation/manipulation. The health agencies have allegedly been subject to regulatory capture both in China and in the USA.

1. The communication of the CDC has changed markedly since the appointment of Pence to the head of the coordinating council. The messaging appears to be more controlled and filtered.

2. The frequent changing of the definition of what a "confirmed case" is in China leads me to completely disregard any published numbers much like other economic metrics published by China.

3. The restrictive testing conditions of the CDC likely has led to multiple cases not yet being discovered in the USA.

As a scientist I'd like to see independently reproduced results across other independent population samples. I think it is healthy to take a more Bayesian approach to these statistics, because you should let your beliefs be updated by additional data and factor in your prior assumptions.

Citing data from a single study from a Chinese health agency just isn't enough for me to change my beliefs completely, my prior knowledge is too strong when combined with everything else circulating in the political/regulatory sphere.

My personal distributions for what the values of mortality and R0 are both still have really fat long tails. But of course that's subject to change.

> I see a low mortality rate

1-2% case fatality rate combined with the current R0 estimate is not low. If this pandemic goes unmitigated it will kill more people than the spanish flu, given the current trajectory.

A 1-2% mortality rate is indeed a huge rate promising massive death. Essentially 20-40 times higher than the conventional flu.

I think the GP is saying that mortality is significantly lower than it appears because the asymptomatic carriers aren't counted in that figure.

That's one way these new pathogens can play out but I don't think there's necessary good evidence for this - the 2% figure seems pretty reliable everywhere.

It's worth noting that causes of the Spanish Flu's mortality rates are still being debated:

"Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults.[14] In contrast, a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic[15][16] found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

First time I've heard a large portion of asymptomatic carriers cited as a good thing.

I'm seeing smoke.

~15% severe cases, ~5% critical. Numbers growing exponentially everywhere.

Long incubation time with little symptoms most of the time making it silent until it's too late.

European governments not even trying to contain it anymore.

Already very loaded health care system are going to be overloaded.

Information heavily controlled to avoid panic.

Seemingly disproportionate Chinese response for something western countries treat as common cold.

The unknown in general :

14% reappearance of disease in recovered cases.

Some cases of sudden death in healthy individuals. (Cytokine storm on reinfection ? )

Probability of mutations becoming higher with increasing number of cases.

The outs :

- Miracle cure : (chloroquine ?, Remdesivir ?, other ?)

- Hot weather (not very optimistic as it seems to spread in hot countries)

- Worldwide quarantines

- Mutation of a less severe variant (virus is from a quite stable family)

- Vaccine in 2 years.

- Everyone gets it, herd immunity builds up, more than 10%-15% percent virus related death among the elderly + unknown complications.

I'm very concerned, taking care of 2 ( > 90 ) relatives.

I stocked a month of food.

Already washing hands and taking precautions.

Would quarantine if I could.

Look at the WHO dashboard [0] at "Cases by date of report", I see less than 2k every day since February 16. This is not exponential growth but stagnation.

Of course, the virus is spreading and it can explode at random places. That is a risk and WHO rates it as "Very High" currently. However, they also say "If you are not in an area where COVID-19 is spreading,or have not travelled from an area where COVID-19 is spreading,or have not been in contact with an infected patient, your risk of infection is low." [1]

[0] https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5b... [1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

Just a heads up, the number of reported cases is not the actual number of cases, not even close. Reported cases only come after positive testing, and testing is extremely selective and limited by healthcare capacity.

A friend who works in a hospital said that they can only request a test if the patient is bad enough to need intensive care. And even then the request may be denied.

The case count doesn't mean anything anymore. The world's healthcare systems don't have the capacity to track the spread.

Anecdotally, I've noticed vastly different information depending on which filter bubble my account is placed in. For example, on my Twitter handle associated with my real name (no posting, simply retweets and likes), I see overwhelming "panic mode" posts and news regarding COVID-19. On the other hand, my other Twitter handle has the exact opposite news regarding COVID-19.

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