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war1025

I am hearing wildly varying opinions on the severity of the covid-19 situation.

It seems like the general conversation here on HN has been much more doom and gloom than some other places.

Anyone have opinions on why that is?

Possibly the higher than normal concentration of members here on the West Coast?

Maybe the general tendency of people with stronger opinions on a topic to comment on threads about that topic?

Obviously there's a chance the concerns raised here are of the proper severity and everyone else is just under-reacting, but it also seems entirely possible that this is already way more widely spread than people realize and the percentages are just skewed because most people wouldn't bother going to the doctor for a cold.

I guess we'll find out one way or another...

View on HN

Doom and gloom as compared to what? I would say it's Doom and gloom before I'd call it a "hoax". If anything, I see a lot of people on here making flu-like comparisons. I'd say I'm more doomish than that, too.

Because so many people are trying to conceal information to keep tourism going, stability, re-election, GDP and so on, we really don't know how bad it is.

But when's the last time a flu caused a 13% sell-off? It seems pretty serious.

After reading The Fifth Risk by Michael Lewis, I'm really starting to be convinced our collective willful ignorance is becoming problematic.

I suppose it all depends what you're tuned in and listening for.

Seems like the majority of comments I've read are basically of the "go into quarantine lock down" variety.

The current sell-off is because people are scared of the uncertainty. It could turn into something more and get even worse, but we have to wait and see for that.

I don't know that it's so much "willful ignorance" as it is the perpetual feeling that we're "at the end of history." I.e. the opinion that bad things happened in the past and bad things can't happen now because we're beyond it.

Something catastrophic is absolutely going to happen world-wide eventually, but at this point I can't say one way or another whether this is it.

Right now we're at a point of probably peak uncertainty. We know enough to be nervous, but it isn't real until it's real.

If you compare what we know about it now to the flu, it’s 20x more lethal than the flu at current estimates with many of those who get it severe enough to go to the hospital requiring intensive care to recover. It’s legit.

Source on the 20x number?

Heard specifically the .1% flu and 2% for COVID19 was from Dr. Adam Bernheim from Mount Sinai hospital in NYC who was interviewed as part of a Bloomberg investing podcast called “Bloomberg Surveillance”. He’s citing roughly what I’ve seen in journals regarding the study of COVID (note I’m not in the medical field but semi-competent and enough to find articles in medical journals, read them and understand what they’re saying) but I haven’t been able to find a number for typical season flu strains being “about .1%” is what he specifically says and “about 2%” for COVID19. He compared various aspects of it to the typical seasonal flus at 11 minutes into the show, specifically 11minutes 40seconds for mortality comparison.

Bloomberg Surveillance podcast is free and also availability through other platforms but here it is through Apple podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-surveillance...

Anecdotally the crowd on here tends towards the anxious, with a fringe minority dipping into outright paranoia. So I calibrate for that whenever I'm reading people's takes on something.

> the general conversation here on HN has been much more doom and gloom than some other places

many people have pointed out that covid-19 threads gets burried alot quicker here on HN

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