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Comment by 8iterations | Hacker News Reader

There is only a ~2% mortality rate from COVID-19, less than the usual flu. If one is prepping to survive from this, it is much more likely you have deeper emotional & psychological issues that prevent you from holding long lasting intimate relationships. And are at a higher risk of death from depression, anxiety, loneliness,and general social isolation. Thank you for listening. P.S. I work in this field and attached is an analysis of the ebola virus breakout from a few years ago, if you feel so inclined to work on something similar using your CS skills for COVID. See you in New Zealand with all the other bitcoin moguls :-) https://petridishtalk.com/2014/10/02/retooling-analysis-pipe...

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This is so infuriatingly false. The mortality rate for the flu this season has been ~0.1%.

The coronavirus is over 10x deadlier than the usual flu according to early estimates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/the-flu-has-already-killed-1...

10x deadlier for 50+ yr olds for younger folks is probably 5-7x lower

“… and nobody in my Bay area startup is over 50, because we hire for culture fit.”

Lower overall, but I believe it isn't lower than the flu for any age range, except maybe 0-10 or 0-20. I'll try and find the relevant study link.

I disagree with your sentiment about preppier mentality strongly. For me, it’s not about prepping to survive like THIS is a world-ending event, it’s about not getting caught in a rush to get supplies or stampedes when people panic. Tbh, that’s more of a concern than the disease.

That said, the serious complication rate is higher than the flu.

The r0 is much higher than the flu.

The disease is spread asymptomatically.

Nobody is ready if the disease does take hold and spreads widely.

Markets are/will continue to take a massive shit.

Either A. the r0 is much higher due to asymptomatic spreading OR B. the serious complication rate is higher. It’s likely not both. If A. is true, the serious complication rate is likely overstated because there are lots of asymptomatic people who are getting counted.

The serious complication rate is ~20% or so of confirmed cases, that's pretty high.

But how do we know it is 20%? If R0 is higher than we think due to asymptomatic spreading, then we likely aren’t counting all the asymptomatic cases. If we did, it would result in a lower serious complication rate. That’s why I said it can’t be both.

You are just among the first to panic.

> There is only a ~2% mortality rate from COVID-19

Correct.

> less than the usual flu

I'm pretty sure that's wrong. From a quick Google the best I could find was an Atlantic article saying the rate is typically around 0.1%. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vac...

I was wrong about the season flu being less deadly. However if we look past lay press like CNBC or The Atlantic because this is cutting edge/developing research, and into the academic press, we see that the mortality rate is significantly lower than other outbreaks like SARS & MERS (9%,35%) https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/199362642/dyaa033... https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa033

So it seems prudent to reiterate that the only causes for social disruption & need to prep would be to have unjustified panic and run at stores like the behavior seen in Italy.

significantly less deadly than sars but also significantly more contagious. sars was only contagious once you showed symptoms, which does not appear to be the case here. for covid, los alamos suggests a pre-intervention r0 of 4-6: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v...

the fatality rate increases with age, up to ~15% for >80. i don't know about you but i have older people in my family that i'm very concerned about.

Yes I agree with you, I am concerned with the elderly & infants. As these are the demographics which usually have higher fatal outcome both in diseases, and even adverse effects from drugs/surgery.

Young children are surprisingly resilient against Coronavirus infections, their mortality is so low that it hardly figures in the stats (on an individual level it is still just as much a tragedy).

As the father of a newborn, grateful to hear this. Do you have a source?

I have kids too and wondered about this. Chinese CDC epidemiology study indicates that kids seemed to be spared from Covid-19 (See table 1) http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

Age is very significant for mortality rate: 0-9: 0%, ..., 60-69: 3.6%, 70-79: 8.0%, 80+: 14.8%. Also the regional breakdown is apparently a useful approximation of what happens when the healthcare system is overwhelmed (Hubei 2.9%) vs not (other Chinese provinces 0.4%). Also 81% patients reported mild symptoms.

Even 'healthy' age people can get hit hard. One of the first people in Italy to be diagnosed with it is just now coming out of intensive care.

If those beds start to fill up... people that might otherwise be helped through the worst might be in trouble.

https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/02/27/news/coronavirus-...

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