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Comment by oefrha | Hacker News Reader

> The seasonal flu alone kills half a million people every year. So any mild disease that is as contagious and barely twice as fatal will kill 1 million

That’s assuming no containment effort, like with seasonal flu. Of course, it’s gonna happen if health authorities take the same defeatist attitude as you and do nothing.

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>Of course, it’s gonna happen if health authorities take the same defeatist attitude as you and do nothing.

I'm a bit confused. Isn't expecting it to be devastating the very attitude needed for authorities to justify engaging in the containment methods needed to reduce the harm caused?

I would say if authorities don’t act it could kill a million or more. Which is very different from gp’s argument that it will kill a million or more regardless.

> Of course, it’s gonna happen if health authorities take the same defeatist attitude as you and do nothing.

how long can they get away with locking people up in their homes? There will be tipping point when those who are supposed to deliver the first-response and do the policing will also become a vector for spreading the disease. Things will escalate quickly no matter if the attitude is "defeatist" or optimistic.

Long enough for the virus to die out? Let’s just check back in July.

what would change things is a vaccine, guess time alone won't do it.

Air temperature could possibly do it or at least contribute, as was the case with SARS in 2003.

It's 35C in Bangkok, 36C across Malaysia and 32C in Singapore.

How much hotter do you think it would have to get to make that virus die out?

Most Singapore buildings and its public transport system are fully A/C.

It's similar for Malaysia and Thailand since they're still in the tropics, except those countries are less dense.

There's plenty of AC in the US as well.

As far as I can tell the virus isn’t spreading like crazy in Bangkok, Malaysia, or Singapore. Singapore had it way worse in 2003, still the SARS virus withered came June.

wouldn't that be only a local effect though, e.g. Southern vs Northern Hemispheres?

The Northern Hemisphere account for ~90% of the world's population; the percentage living beyond 23.5°S is very small. It is entirely conceivable that the epidemic is put under control before it gets too cold for those people.

Seasonal flu does have containment efforts - vaccination

Prevention and containment are related but not exactly the same.

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