The next generation of social networks is already here. It's decentralized and open-source. Mastodon, Pleroma, PeerTube, loads more, all part of the same network, the fediverse.
I would assume that once a major media company or government organization realizes they can adopt an implementation of the existing protocol this will move that network a bit closer to the tipping point.
Can you quantify that? XMPP has been around forever and the biggest chat messengers are proprietary. IRC has been around forever, but Slack and Teams are what's actually being used.
What is the evidence that an open standard for social use-cases can actually drive use?