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Average rate of return is 7% accounting for inflation, actually. That assumes you're doing dividend reinvestment and such.

Vanguard's predictions of 3-4% over the next decade mean that if you do a straight dollar calculation you'd be closer to ~7%, because that 3-4% number includes inflation, once again.

It has to be said that this 7-8% average is inflated due to being at the end (?) of a ten year bull market.

Vangaurd is predicting low growth of 3-4% over the next decade.

7-8% is still nothing to scoff at. Better than a measly 1% in a savings account :D

There is a slight difference in outcome between 7 and 15 percent return though :).