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Comment by hedora | Hacker News Reader

In case there was any doubt, the numbers coming from China are being faked. Infections and deaths are quadratic with an R^2 value of 0.9995:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22275092

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With four parameters I can fit an elephant, with five I can make him wiggle his trunk. -John Von Neumann

Turns out that this is true, but you need four COMPLEX numbers. Not that that would have been something that von Neumann would have scoffed at. Source: https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2011/06/21/how-to-fit-an-elep...

I've read this several times. Could someone shed some light on this? Are the reported numbers impossible because they are too close to the curve? Or because the numbers should follow another curve? Could there be a hidden mechanism in the speed at which the virus is tested for that could explain the quadratic?

Of course.

If you say: - The only cases that we will confirm have a positive trst

Then if you only test 3000 today and 4000 tomorrow that would define the curve not the real spread.

The fit is too good, and it has predicted subsequent stats with implausible accuracy so far.

Something like a hospital opening, and suddenly having a pile of patients to test, should result in a small spike in that graph. A quarantine being enacted in a city should cause a change in angle of the curve.

The list of spikes is available, e.g. from Tencent News: https://xw.qq.com/act/qgfeiyan

Most recent update right now:

上海新增5例新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎确诊病例

Shanghai adds 5 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection

2020年2月8日0—12时，上海市排除新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疑似病例11例；新增治愈出院11例；新增确诊病例5例，其中2例为外地来沪人员，3例为本市常住人口。

On 2020-02-08 from 0 to 12, Shanghai handled 11 suspected cases of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection, added 11 cases released from hospital after treatment, added 5 confirmed cases, 2 of which are not originally from Shanghai and 3 are residents.

截至2月8日12时，上海市已累计排除疑似病例877例，发现确诊病例286例。

Until 02-08 at 12 o'clock, Shanghai has already handled a total of 877 suspected cases and discovered 286 confirmed cases.

健康上海12320 Healthy Shanghai 12320

Lots of small spikes can still add up to a smooth curve overall.

Reddit? Confirmed by YouTube videos, I assume.

Mocking an idea by comparing it to something you feel has a low reputation is a quick way to discredit an idea. Why would you want to discredit the idea? Do you truly believe in what you are saying (only believe what the official release says, don't dig deeper because believing otherwise is something to be made fun of) At what point do you decide to start thinking for yourself and not accept what is being feed to you directly?

This site gives you upto date stats. https://wuflu.live

Question:

What do you make of the daily infection rate from China? What does your personal judgement tell you?

My personal judgement isn't telling me anything. I'm a logistics guy, not a virologist or epidemiologist. So I stick to the WHO first.

That is critical thinking, not refusing to believe primary sources and experts because it is "mainstream" or doesn't confirm your personal opinion.

Also, we already all died from SARS,MERS, H1N1, H1N5, the pig plague in Europe and at least twice from Ebola.

True, but it looks like 2019-nCoV may be different from these cases.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor...

It’s still possible that quarantines and travel bans will first halt the outbreak and then eradicate the microbe, and the world will never see 2019-nCoV again, as epidemiologist Dr. Mike Ryan, head of health emergencies at the World Health Organization, told STAT on Saturday. That’s what happened with SARS in 2003.

Many experts, however, view that happy outcome as increasingly unlikely.

The top post from four days ago predict the numbers the Chinese will announce.

    08/02/2020 34506 cases 721 fatalities
    09/02/2020 38675 cases 808 fatalities
    10/02/2020 43084 cases 900 fatalities
    11/02/2020 47733 cases 997 fatalities

The 8/2 figures compare with 34 598 and 723 announced on the WHO site or almost spot on. You can check how well they've done with subsequent days here https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

Given the scenes of chaos on the ground the numbers do seem a little over smooth. You can also pretty much get the fatalities number by dividing the cases by 47.9.

So a mortality rate of roughly 2.x %. Wow, someone build a model based on actual official numbers that predicts rather accurately official numbers.

Why aren't people on HN willing to believe official numbers and prediction and model? Because being on HN and tech-savy makes you better at anything, even better than domain experts?

Not sure it's people thinking they are better than domain experts so much as people not trusting the Chinese government. But I mean they haven't publicly arrested any doctors for giving out information for over a month now so it's probably all good.

That and there was some news around that China’s infection rate matches the daily manufacturing supply of testing kits. With there not being enough kits to test patients.

Videos from China locals do show way more dead than the official numbers.

And how exactly did you count the dead in these videos? And how did you match the against the official reports? And for which time period?

Anyone can play the question game. A cursory twitter search #coronavirus will reveal that the situation is more serious that the W.H.O is letting on

Because Twitter is replacing actual situation reports compiled by the international body, the WHO, formed especially for cases like that. Also, the WHO is staffed by experts in that field. How are the people on Twitter measuring up to that? In terms of qualifications and resources?

Don't need a PhD to count bodybags

https://www.bitchute.com/video/yuAG7tjHDJ8I/

But maybe you need one to properly count them? When, where, how many exactly? All the bodybags in the videos the only ones? How are there really? Are they multiple videos, in which you should avoid double counts?

You propose since I don't have the final exact death count as your badgering questions demand, I cannot infer the death toll is higher than the PRC states? I reject your proposal.

There are ways to uncover the real number

Exclusive: Wuhan funeral home staffer reveals real death toll of coronavirus | NTD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KFxCqV1fPQ

1 funeral home (of many in the city), 11 ovens, running 24/7, 1 body per hour = 260 per day every day max capacity

Is the WHO allowed into China to report on & collect data? Oh wait, nope.

So those WHO reports are being based of what exactly...oh yeah CCP provided figures.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/cdc-coronavirus-ch...

How do you count a dead person who’s apartment building was welded shut [1].

I doubt these deaths were counted, nsfw/graphic [2].

Just doing basic research will tell you the Chinese CCP numbers are not accurate.

[1] https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1226180829837025281

(Nsfl/ graphic) https://twitter.com/FinnaganMarina/status/122476176399400141...

Again, no reliable primary sources. Twitter? Seriously?

Western scientific entities aren’t allowed in China to study or collect data (to my knowledge). WHO/CDC/John Hopkins...etc are making analysis on CCP provided numbers. with the CCP numbers historically have not been accurate, with CCP trying to save face.

So what primary source would you recommend?

The ones that make the most sense. In that case, again, the WHO. Why? Because a lot is known about Corona viruses in general. And that one was analysed a lot as well. The WHO is looking at all numbers, not just the ones from China. And apparently these numbers do make sense based on everything we know so far. And these numbers also do ad up, the Chinese ones also seem to make sense in the international context.

Now, I am no expert. But when experts in field are indirectly, in the case of China, and directly verify numbers, and these numbers do make sense based on models and expectations, I go with the experts.

And by all respect, these experts are not on Twitter and YouTube. Because all these. Numbers on YouTube and Twitter, all these videos, are impossible to confirm. Impossible to put them in the proper context, location and time vise. And impossible to verify. Add to that the stress and fear of people on the ground producing these videos, and the ignorance of Youtubers not being on the ground, and you get an unreliable, uninformed mess.

It's no use, people refuse to see the truth for what it is, just as Shenzen [1] and Guangzhou have been put on partial lock-down.

Later edit: Add Tianjin and Chengdu to the list [2], which means that out of the 7 biggest Chinese cities only the first 3 are not yet technically on any form of lockdown (Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing).

Later later edit: Photos + video of people escaping the Shenzen lockdown just before coming into effect yesterday, February 7th [3]

[1] https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/20/2/8/n11853273.htm (Google Translate will help)

[2] https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3061526

[3] https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1226130936292499457 and https://twitter.com/freddie1999/status/1225754832751013888

The lockdown in Guangdong is real, but it's not the same as the lockdown in Hubei.

Wearing a mask in public is mandatory. Urban villages have been cordoned off and there are checkpoints to move in and out. Gated communities have also been advised to do temperature checks and record movement. All residents who need to return to work next week are being encouraged to register with the local community center to avoid additional ID checks and bottlenecks at the checkpoint.

Unlike in Hubei, public transport is still running. 外卖 (food delivery) and 快递 (courier services) are still active. Many shops and restaurants are closed, but there are slightly more places open this weekend than there were last weekend.

Our version of the lockdown is still oppressive and inconvenient, but it's looser (or more optimized?) now than it was when it was put into place a week ago. There isn't a sense that people are fleeing the city. On the contrary, they are returning from their home provinces.

Source: I live here.

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