Comment by TulliusCicero | Hacker News Reader

Comment by TulliusCicero | Hacker News Reader

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Failure to allow supply to meet demand. Zoning regulations constrain how much housing can be built to a very low amount on most residential land. No surprise that prices would rise in that environment, this is barely econ 101, it's like high school level economics.

Like, when demand goes straight up and supply can't go nearly as fast, what else would anyone expect? I don't understand why everyone always acts so shocked that the completely predictable happens over and over.

Seattle has actually been much better about allowing more housing than some peer cities, like SF. But compared to cities in most other developed countries, the situation is still awful. For example, the kind of very low density zoning that is commonplace in Seattle literally doesn't exist anywhere in Japan or Germany.

I don't think you'll find many urbanists or YIMBYs pushing to demolish greenspace like parks or trails. I'm certainly not; if anything, I'd prefer to push to acquire more greenspace, perhaps by redeveloping surface parking lots. As for housing needs, there's plenty of space where things are already developed.

> Like, when demand goes straight up and supply can't go nearly as fast, what else would anyone expect? I don't understand why everyone always acts so shocked that the completely predictable happens over and over.

Thay aren't shocked, as you say its a predictable side effect. That's why cities have to be careful when saying yes please to the economic growth promised by big companies - it can have a detrimental effects on the people living there. Zoning regulations aren't usually arbitrary (I can't speak for any particular city's ordinances) they are there to ensure that minimum housing standards are met, that people don't find themselves living too close to heavy industrial areas, that the infrastructure and green space can cope.

I'm afraid you're wrong: there are many, MANY supply and demand denialists around, who think it doesn't apply to housing. Believe me, I've argued with them. They see that brand new housing is more expensive than the decades-old housing it replaced, and go, "See?? It didn't help the prices at all!"

> Zoning regulations aren't usually arbitrary

True, in many cases they were designed to keep out undesirables, like people who are poor, or non-white. That's not arbitrary, it's intentionally bigoted.

Nobody's suggesting dumping factories into residential areas, or relaxing basic safety standards. That type of zoning is absolutely fine.

The biggest reason is political, that people have NIMBY tendencies: yes there needs to be more housing somewhere, but put it somewhere else please. I don't want to have to worry about parking or see unsightly apartments on my block.

I don't dispute that infrastructure is a concern, but it's not a blocker. Cities growing quickly isn't some unfathomable phenomenon of the 21st century, the logistics can be handled if people want it politically.

and, i've never understood why people ALWAYS assume that a new apartment building will be unsightly. There's just this general attitude of "any kind of building, any kind of development" is bad development. It's really crazying coming from a country that wants economic development so badly.

There's so much economic development that could happen if we simply allowed builders to build the housing that people so desperately need. its win win.

It is a petty objection compared to the stakes but ugliness and beauty aren't in isolation. Take a beautiful Mediterranean Villa and plop it down in the middle of a colonial historic district and it will clash despite both being considered beautiful on their own.

By definition new apartments in a less dense area will have to stand out and the transitioning will result in either clashing. The alternative is they do it in a big wave and say buy out a small neighborhood cul de sac and turn them into apartments. It wouldn't clash any more even if they went with something downright garish but the big changes like that also upset people as they find it jarring.

To be fair, in the US at least, most apartment blocks are kind of ugly compared to most single family homes. Living in Munich now, they're much more attractive on average.

>I'm afraid you're wrong: there are many, MANY supply and demand denialists around, who think it doesn't apply to housing.

Are they really in denial though, I mean many want the housing prices to go up because it means their housing ( asset ) increases as well. So there is clearly a conflict of interest.

I think that's a different category of people, those who understand quite well that supply and demand applies here, and for that reason don't want more supply, to enrich themselves.

There's definitely a grouping of people who just think adding more housing doesn't help lower prices.

Housing doesn’t fit the traditional supply/demand model b/c of the time constraint. It takes time to build housing but companies can grow and hire faster than housing can be built. You don’t want to overbuild and create ghost towns where developers go bankrupt trying to sell (a couple of these places exist in Europe, Canada, and America - I think China too but I haven’t seen it in person), but you don’t want to underbuild a la SF. So I agree with you that the zoning laws have a lot to do with it - but housing isn’t an instant commodity either - it can take many years, esp for high density projects.

*typed with thumbs

Housing doesn’t fit the traditional supply/demand model b/c incumbent owners are able to increase there wealth by using the power of the state to constrain supply through zoning and other regulatory means.

The time constraint you mention is often artificial, six months for permitting here and two months for an impact study there. Actual construction is surprisingly fast.

Nobody overbuilds into ghost towns where there are real housing problems. The only ghost towns I've seen were really small areas that didn't really need all of the houses.

Also, manufacturing delays don't have any impact on supply and demand. They are part of the "supply".

What allows companies to hire faster than cities can grow? The companies still need office space that means more and bigger buildings, it's the same damn problem as housing.

...with one significant difference: communities are generally much more amenable to increased jobs than increased residents. And companies growing fast usually are cool with huge buildings in the city center, which is the one place where cities are generally fine with high density. Getting cities to be okay with, say, low-rise housing developments across the city is a much harder ask. So it really does just come down to zoning and zoning-adjacent concerns (e.g. community input meetings where developments get shot down).

I'll take the occasional unlucky overbuild if it means sanity in the bay area, Seattle, NYC, Boston, etc.

Companies can't grow faster than the supply of office space, which also has time constraints.

Overbuilt is not a function of supply and demand, but more often speculation.

It doesn't take time to build warehouses and factories?

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